UN Resolution Does Not Authorize US To Use Force Against Iraq

Despite successfully pushing the U.N. Security Council to toughen further its already strict inspections regime against Iraq, the Bush administration appears ready to engage in unilateral military action. “If the Security Council fails to act decisively in the event of further Iraqi violations, this resolution does not constrain any member state from acting to defend itself against the threat posed by Iraq or to enforce relevant United Nations resolutions,” U.S. ambassador to the United Nations John Negroponte claimed immediately after last Friday’s vote.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

The U.N. Security Council, in its unanimous adoption of resolution 1441, declares in Article 14 that it “decides to remain seized of the matter.” This is diplomatic language for asserting that the Security Council alone has the authority to determine what, if any, action to take regarding current or future Iraqi violations of their resolutions.

The U.N. Charter declares unequivocally in Articles 41 and 42 that the U.N. Security Council alone has the power to authorize the use of military force against any nation in noncompliance of its resolutions. It was the insistence by France, Russia and other nations that any alleged Iraqi violations be put before the Security Council to determine the appropriate response that delayed for seven weeks the adaptation of the U.S.-sponsored resolution.

Originally, the United States insisted upon the right of any member state to unilaterally attack Iraq if any single government determined that Saddam Hussein’s regime was violating the strict new guidelines. The U.N. Security Council categorically rejected the U.S. demand to grant its members such unprecedented authority to wage war. Instead, the resolution adopted insists that any alleged violations be brought forward by the inspection teams consisting of experts in the field, not by any member state. At such a time, according to the resolution, the Security Council would “convene immediately in order to consider the situation and the need for full compliance.”

Why, then, has the Bush administration and its supporters in Congress and the media disingenuously reinterpreted the resolution? Apparently, President Bush has been determined for some time to go to war regardless of the level of Iraqi compliance but — given that public opinion polls indicate a majority of Americans would support a war against Iraq only if there was U.N. approval — he needs to claim U.N. authorization.

Lacking such authorization, he and his congressional and media allies have decided to claim that the United States has such authorization anyway.

One can therefore picture a scenario like this: In the early stage of the inspections process, some technical or bureaucratic glitch will emerge that other Security Council members believe is resolvable, but the United States will claim to be Iraqi noncompliance. The rest of the Security Council will insist the problem is not that serious, but the Bush administration will exaggerate the nature of the dispute and will claim the right to enforce the resolution unilaterally.

The vast majority of the international community will not support this conclusion, but Bush and his supporters will claim that the United Nations is prevaricating again and that it is up to the United States to enforce U.N. resolutions since the United Nations is supposedly unwilling to do so itself.

Iraq agreed back in September to accept a return of UN inspectors under conditions put forward by the Security Council that were already far stricter than those initially imposed after the Gulf War. In response, the Bush Administration threatened war unless the Security Council voted to strengthen them still further, essentially moving the goalposts.

There are more than 100 U.N. Security Council resolutions being violated by member states. Iraq is in violation of at most 16 of them. Ironically, Washington has effectively blocked the enforcement of U.N. Security Council resolutions against many other nations, since they include such countries as Morocco, Indonesia, Israel and Turkey that are allied with the United States.

At the same time, the Bush administration insists that the credibility of the United Nations is at stake if it doesn’t enforce by military means the resolutions against Iraq.

In reality, it is this kind of double standard that threatens the credibility of the United Nations.

It’s Iraq, Stupid!

This should have been the Democrats’ year.

The country is still mired in recession. Polls consistently have shown that the Republicans’ positions on such basic policy issues as the environment and the economy are decidedly unpopular. The connection of top administration officials with scandal-plagued corporations provided ample opportunities for a populist message against corruption and in support of economic justice.

Despite this, the Democrats became the first party out of office to lose one of the houses of Congress in an off-year election. It was the first time in a century that a Republican president saw his party gain seats in an off-year election and only the second time since 1934 that a sitting president’s party did not lose seats in Congress.

Instead of emulating the hugely successful 1994 Republican strategy of aggressively challenging the incumbent president and his party’s Congressional leadership, the Democrats instead decided to work on a consensus-building approach with the Republican administration. They even went as far as supporting President George W. Bush’s demand that he be granted the authority to invade Iraq without the legally-required mandate from the United Nations Security Council. In addition, the majority of Democrats went on record praising his support for last spring’s attacks by Israel’s right-wing government against civilian areas of the occupied West Bank. The Democrats went as far as supporting Republican calls authorizing the use of military force to free any citizen of the United States or an allied nation detained for war crimes by the United Nations’ International Criminal Court in The Hague.

As a result, many thousands of rank-and-file Democrats, longtime supporters of peace and human rights issues, voted for the Green Party or simply did not vote. Thousands more voted reluctantly for the Democratic nominee but did not put in the volunteer time or campaign contributions they would have otherwise, angered that the Democrats had shifted so far to the right.

It is noteworthy that both incumbent Democratic senators and five out of the six Democratic House incumbents who were defeated supported the Iraq war resolution. By contrast, no incumbent who opposed the Democratic Congressional leadership’s support of President Bush’s war plans lost, with the exception of Rep. James Maloney of Connecticut, who was pitted against a popular moderate female Republican incumbent in a redrawn district.

It is difficult to shift public attention to domestic issues in times of international tension. Making a strong case against the Bush administration’ s war plans, its support for repressive governments and its assaults on well-respected international institutions would have almost certainly resulted in a galvanizing of the Democratic Party faithful as well as large numbers of independents, insuring a Democratic victory.

The Democratic leadership should have recognized that calls for prescription drug benefits for seniors while the nation is concerned about an illegal, unnecessary and possibly devastating war simply did not catch the imagination of the voting public.

This was particularly problematic in that the Democrats were unable to explain how they intended to pay for such benefits while refusing to reverse recently-enacted tax cuts and in authorizing a military campaign that will cost up to $200 billion.

Hopefully, the Democrats will learn the lesson for Tuesday’s devastating defeat and decide to replace their discredited leadership with those who have the integrity and political smarts to return them to majority status.

http://www.alternet.org/story/14491/it%27s_iraq%2C_stupid%21/

Zunes Debates U.S. Policy Toward Iraq (video)

In this video, Dr. Stephen Zunes and Mark Lance debate two right-wing analysts at Georgetown. The exchange explores “policy toward Iraq and whether the U.S. should engage in military action to remove Saddam Hussein”?as well as “Iraqi weapons capability, stability in the Middle East, and building an international coalition to take action against Iraq.”

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/USPolicyTowardIraq23

President Bush Fails to Make His Case

Given what is at stake, one would have thought that the administration would have made a stronger case for going to war than President George W. Bush did on Monday evening.

The weakness of the administration’s position is apparent in its insistence of repeating stories of Iraqi atrocities from more than 10 to 20 years ago, such as its support for international terrorist groups like Abu Nidal and its use of chemical weapons. It was during this period when the United States was quietly supporting the Iraqi regime, covering up reports of its use of chemical weapons and even providing intelligence for Iraqi forces that used such weapons against Iranian troops. Though the 1980s marked the peak of Iraq’s support for terrorist groups, the U.S. government actually dropped Iraq from its list of states sponsoring terrorism because of its own ties to the Iraqi war effort.

Two decades later, in its annual report, “Patterns of Global Terrorism,” the State Department presented no evidence of any current Iraqi support for active terrorist groups, only the granting of sanctuary to some aging leaders of dormant groups.

The president’s speech again presented no evidence that the decidedly secular Baath regime of Saddam Hussein and the Islamist al-Qaeda had overcome their longstanding hostility toward one another. The only charge that appears to have any credibility is that of al-Qaeda operatives from Afghanistan being seen inside Iraq, yet all of these sightings have taken place in Kurdish areas in the north that are beyond Baghdad’s control.

Accusations of Iraqi possession of ballistic missiles are similarly outdated: According to a 1998 report by the UN Special Commission on Iraq (UNSCOM), 817 of Iraq’s 819 Soviet-build ballistic missiles have been accounted for and destroyed. Iraq may possess up to a couple of dozen homemade versions, but these have not been tested and it is questionable whether they have any functional launchers.

One of the few new threats mentioned in the president’s speech is the alleged development by Iraq of unmanned aerial vehicles capable of distributing chemical or biological agents over a wide area. Given that virtually all of Iraq’s neighbors have sophisticated anti-aircraft defenses, however, and that the U.S. Air Force rules the skies in that part of the world, such slow-moving UAVS would likely be shot down before they even left Iraqi air space.

President Bush’s demands for a new Security Council resolution on Iraqi disarmament is a classic case of moving the goalposts. The U.S. had supported the terms that were spelled out in previous resolutions, but as soon as Iraq accepted them, the administration suddenly demanded this new resolution that would usurp them.

There are provisions in the U.S. proposal — such as insisting on the right for U.S. officials to accompany the UN inspectors (who Iraq presumes would be spying), allowing the use of force for alleged noncompliance without first seeking UNSC approval, scrapping previously agreed-upon protocols, and demanding that simple reporting errors from the Iraqi side are legitimate grounds for war — that seem designed to simply give a legal cover for a U.S. invasion.

Claiming that the UN’s credibility is at stake if it does not back up its resolutions requiring Iraqi disarmament is similarly disingenuous. There are well over 90 UN Security Council resolutions that are currently being violated by countries other than Iraq. The vast majority of these resolutions are being violated by countries that receive U.S. military, economic and diplomatic support, such as Turkey, Indonesia and Israel. Indeed, the U.S. has effectively blocked the UN Security Council from enforcing many of these resolutions.

Perhaps the most misleading statement in the president’s address was that the United States “has never permitted the brutal and lawless to set history’s course.” Had this been the case, successive Republican and Democratic administrations would have never supported the Indonesian dictator Suharto for over three decades, as he presided over the massacre of half a million of his own people and invaded the tiny nation of East Timor, resulting in the deaths of an additional 200,000 civilians. Nor would the United States have supported governments like Turkey, Israel and Morocco, which have also invaded neighboring countries at the cost of thousands of civilian lives.

Despite President Bush’s assertion to the contrary, nobody believes that Saddam should be trusted. Yet renewed UN inspections combined with satellite and aerial surveillance, ongoing military sanctions and more, make it very unlikely that the Iraq regime could proceed with the development of weapons of mass destruction.

Claims that the threat from Iraq is “far more clearly defined” than al-Qaeda prior to last Sept. 11, 2001, are totally false. Al-Qaeda was quite explicit that it was targeting the United States. The reality of that threat was clear, such as the embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania and the attack on the USS Cole. Iraq has never claimed it was targeting the U.S. Indeed, outside of the Gulf War in 1991 and the attack on the USS Stark more than 15 years ago (which the U.S. claimed was accidental), Iraq has never directly attacked American assets at home or abroad.

There are any number of regimes in the world today — China, Russia, North Korea and Iran, among others — for which one can think of worst-case scenarios similar to or worse than those being brought forward regarding Iraq. Yet no country has the right to invade another based upon such worst-case scenarios. Otherwise, there would be scores of new wars breaking out all over the world.

http://www.alternet.org/story/14255/president_bush_fails_to_make_his_case/

U.S.-Iraq: On the War Path

Key Points

* U.S. support for Saddam Hussein’s regime in the 1980s contributed to Iraq’s emergence as a major regional military power.

* The U.S.-led Gulf War in 1991 forced the withdrawal of Iraqi occupation troops from Kuwait and led to an ongoing U.S. military presence in the region, including periodic air strikes against Iraq.

* War damage from 1991, combined with severe economic sanctions and periodic U.S. air strikes, precipitated Iraq’s severe humanitarian crisis.

With its enormous oil wealth, large agricultural base, and population of over 20 million, Iraq has long been considered one of the most important countries in the Arab world. The site of the ancient civilization of Mesopotamia, Iraq emerged as an amalgam of three Ottoman provinces under a British-imposed monarch in 1921. A nationalist revolution in 1958 led to a series of military-led leftist governments, eventually coalescing under leadership from the Baath Party, a secular Arab nationalist movement.

Though Muslim Arabs predominate, they are outnumbered by the combined populations of Sunni Muslim Kurds in the North and Shiite Muslim Arabs in the South. During the 1980s and early 1990s, the Baghdad regime engaged in severe repression against these two minorities. The United States has twice backed Kurdish uprisings against the regime only to precipitously abandon them later.

By the late 1970s, Saddam Hussein had risen to leadership in a bloody series of purges, allegedly with some support from the CIA, which hoped he would steer the country from a pro-Soviet to a more nonaligned direction. Under Saddam’s leadership prior to the Gulf War, the Iraqi people gained an impressive level of prosperity, ranking near the top of third world countries in terms of nutrition, education, health care, housing, and other basic needs. Yet Saddam ruled with both brutality and a cult of personality, establishing a system closely resembling fascism.

The U.S. quietly supported Saddam Hussein during the 1980s with economic aid, largely covert military aid, and technology transfers including key components for Iraq’s chemical and biological weapons programs. When Iraq invaded Iran in 1980 and again when it used chemical weapons against Iranian soldiers and Kurdish civilians, the U.S. refused to support sanctions against the Baghdad regime. Such special treatment likely led the Iraqi dictator to believe that appeasement would continue.

In 1990, following a dispute with Kuwait regarding debt repayment and oil policy, Iraq invaded and annexed the sheikdom. Applying enormous pressure, the senior Bush administration eventually won approval from the U.S. Congress and the UN Security Council to authorize the use of force to end Iraq’s occupation. The United States, with support from some allied governments, commenced a heavy bombing campaign in January 1991 targeting both Iraqi military forces and the country’s civilian infrastructure. The U.S.-led assault, known as Operation Desert Storm, ended six weeks later after a ground offensive liberated Kuwait from Iraqi control with minimal allied casualties but over 100,000 Iraqi deaths.

The cease-fire agreement included unprecedented restrictions against Iraq’s military and the dismantling of its weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) and their delivery systems, enforced through rigorous inspections by international monitors under the UN Special Commission on Iraq (UNSCOM). This intrusive yet innovative effort at unilateral arms control was damaged both by Iraqi evasiveness and by Washington’s abuse of UNSCOM for spying purposes.

The Iraqi regime’s severe repression against rebellious Shiites in the South and Kurds in the North immediately following the Gulf War provided a pretext for the United States and its allies to create so-called “no-fly zones” restricting Iraq’s military movements even within its borders. In addition, since early 1999 the U.S. has engaged in unauthorized air strikes on an almost weekly basis.

Alleging that Iraq has not fully complied with provisions of the cease-fire agreement, the U.S. has successfully prevented the UN from lifting sanctions. The result has been a humanitarian catastrophe, with hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians—primarily children—dying from malnutrition and preventable diseases resulting from the inability of Iraqis to obtain adequate food and medicine or the materials necessary to rebuild the war-damaged civilian infrastructure.

In 1993 and 1996, the U.S. engaged in a series of sustained air strikes as punitive measures against alleged Iraqi transgressions. The U.S. engaged in a heavy four-day bombing campaign in December 1998, forcing the withdrawal of UN weapons inspectors. This prompted Iraq to forbid UN inspectors from returning until September 2002, when Iraq agreed to allow inspectors from UNSCOM’s successor, the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC).

After President George W. Bush took office, the U.S. attempted to create an armed Iraqi opposition group out of disparate exile leaders, but with little success. By late 2001, official U.S. policy stipulated a “regime change” and included threats of a full-scale U.S. invasion of the country in order to install a new government more to Washington’s liking.

Problems with Current U.S. Policy

Key Problems

* A United States war on Iraq is illegal without explicit approval of the UN Security Council, and Washington’s policies of “preemption” and “regime change” violate basic principles of international law.

* The Bush administration has failed to provide evidence that Iraq threatens the United States with weapons of mass destruction or that it is linked with the Al Qaeda network.

* During the 1990s, UN inspectors succeeded in eliminating most of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction and delivery systems.

Although the senior Bush administration assembled strong international support for the 1991 Gulf War, subsequently the U.S. has taken an increasingly unilateralist stance toward Iraq. In early 2002, the Bush administration began warning that it was not enough for Iraq simply to allow UN inspectors to return; what was required was nothing less than a “regime change” in Baghdad, imposed by invading American forces if necessary. This was the first test of a new doctrine of “preemption,” whereby the United States reserves the right to invade and overthrow any government that it deems a potential threat to U.S. interests, a position that violates the United Nations Charter and basic principles of international law developed over the past century.

Iraq still has not recovered from the 1991 war, during which it was subjected to the heaviest bombing in world history. Since the war, the U.S. has insisted that UN sanctions not be lifted until Saddam Hussein is ousted. However, other UN members originally agreed to extend the sanctions only until Iraq complied with demands to dismantle its WMD capability and address other outstanding issues from the 1991 cease-fire resolution.

Rather than encouraging popular opposition, the sanctions have resulted in an unprecedented level of poverty, and the dependence of the population on the central government for rations has further consolidated Baghdad’s grip on power. Given the serious humanitarian consequences of the sanctions, combined with their ineffectiveness, by the mid- to late-1990s most UN Security Council members supported lifting nonmilitary sanctions altogether. The United States has blocked such efforts, though the sanctions were modified.

By the time Iraq agreed to a return of UN inspectors in September 2002, WMDs were only one of a litany of issues raised by the Bush administration to justify an invasion. Many of Washington’s accusations—including human rights abuses, violations of UN Security Council resolutions, and the harboring of terrorists—were either gross exaggerations or were not unique to Iraq. The latest report by the International Atomic Energy Agency in 1998 declared that Iraq’s nuclear capability had been completely dismantled. According to some UNSCOM inspectors, 95% of the country’s chemical weapons were accounted for and destroyed. Much of the biological weaponry has also been destroyed; there is some debate over how much remains or has since been developed. And whatever remaining functional ballistic missiles Iraq may have capable of delivering WMDs are of dubious reliability and probably number less than two dozen.

The Bush administration has also been unable to explain what might motivate this impoverished third world country either to launch a first strike against the world’s one remaining superpower or to pass on such precious technology to a terrorist group it could not control. Saddam Hussein has repeatedly valued his survival in power above all else, and he knows that any attack against the United States or its allies would be suicidal. Yet despite the absence of any direct evidence that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction, a means of deploying them, or the motivation to launch a suicidal offensive use of such weaponry, the Bush administration still maintains that the Iraqi regime is an intolerable threat to American security and must be overthrown.

Iraq is in clear violation of some sections of UN Security Council Resolution 687 as well as subsequent resolutions reiterating demands for Iraqi disarmament and related concerns. However, only the UN Security Council has the prerogative to authorize military responses to violations of its resolutions; no single member state can do so unilaterally. A unilateral U.S. invasion, therefore, would be a clear violation of international law. Moreover, as in most wars, innocent civilians will suffer the most.

Despite efforts to link Iraq to the ongoing war against terrorism, the Bush administration has been unable to show any firm evidence that the strongly secular Baathist regime is supporting the Islamic fundamentalist Al Qaeda network. Ironically, when Iraq was most active in its support of international terrorism during the 1980s—bankrolling the now-defunct Abu Nidal group and other radical secular nationalists—the U.S. dropped Iraq from its list of states sponsoring terrorism. Today, Iraq is back on the list, although the State Department’s most recent report on international terrorism failed to find any direct Iraqi support for terrorist activities.

In contrast to the 1991 Gulf War to liberate Kuwait, today there is virtually no support within the Arab or Islamic world for a U.S. invasion of Iraq. Indeed, such an attack could result in an outburst of anti-American protests and extremist violence, possibly threatening a number of pro-Western regimes. Furthermore, a U.S. invasion of Iraq would meet with far greater resistance than during the Gulf War: rather than facing poorly trained conscripts in flat open desert, American forces could end up fighting loyal, heavily armed elite units in the densely populated center of the country.

Finally, U.S. double standards have greatly harmed American credibility in the region. Most Arabs and many others around the world question why Washington insists on singling out Iraq for its alleged possession of WMDs while raising no objections to such allies as Israel and Pakistan developing nuclear weapons and sophisticated missile systems. This is particularly duplicitous, given that UN Security Council Resolution 687, which the U.S. claims to be enforcing through the sanctions and bombing, calls for “establishing in the Middle East a zone free from weapons of mass destruction and all missiles for their delivery.”

Toward a New Foreign Policy

Key Recommendations

* The U.S. must end its threats of an invasion of Iraq, support the return of UN weapons inspectors, and return to working within a multilateral framework.

* To maintain credibility in curbing potential Iraqi threats to peace and stability, the U.S. must support arms control and UN Security Council resolutions throughout the region rather than singling out Iraq.

* The U.S. must support the lifting of economic sanctions against Iraq’s civilian population. A credible democratic opposition movement capable of ousting Saddam Hussein’s regime will more likely emerge if sanctions are lifted and outside intervention is kept at a minimum.

The Bush administration must drop its illegal doctrines of “preemptive strike” and “regime change,” support the return of UN weapons inspectors, and work to build genuine multilateral coalitions and decisionmaking. The most effective means of preventing any potential deployment or use of WMDs is to support unfettered access for UNMOVIC inspectors in Iraq, which would be impossible during a military attack.

Washington must pledge to enforce other outstanding UN Security Council resolutions and not simply single out Iraq. As long as the United States allows allied regimes to flout UN Security Council resolutions, any sanctimonious insistence for strict compliance by the Iraqi government will simply be dismissed as hypocritical and mean-spirited, whatever the merit of the actual charges.

In a similar vein, the United States must support a comprehensive arms control plan for the region, including the establishment of a zone in the Middle East where all weapons of mass destruction are banned. Such an agreement would halt the U.S. practice of transporting nuclear weapons into the region on its planes and ships and would force Israel to dismantle its sizable nuclear arsenal. This more holistic approach to nonproliferation might include, for example, a five-year program affecting not just Iraqi missiles but phasing out Syrian, Israeli, and other countries’ missiles as well.

As with its highly selective insistence on the enforcement of UN Security Council resolutions, the double standards in U.S. policy render even the most legitimate concerns about Iraqi weapons development virtually impossible to successfully pursue. If Iraq is truly a threat to regional security, there must be a comprehensive regional security regime worked out between the eight littoral states of the Persian Gulf. The U.S. should support such efforts and not allow its quest for arms sales and oil resources to unnecessarily exacerbate regional tensions. In addition, the United States should withdraw its ground forces from the Persian Gulf, since the U.S. military presence—aimed largely at Iraq—has not contributed to the security of the region and has led to an anti-American backlash, most dramatically in the form of the Al Qaeda terrorist network.

Washington should continue to support a strict UN arms embargo on Iraq and closely monitor potential dual-use technologies. However, the U.S. should join the growing number of countries in the Middle East and around the world calling for a lifting of the economic sanctions that have brought so much suffering to Iraqi civilians. The Bush administration should promise to no longer block the lifting of economic sanctions once the UN secretary-general recognizes that Baghdad is in effective compliance with Security Council resolutions. The United States, in consultation with other members of the Security Council, needs to clarify the positive responses that Iraq can expect in return for specific improvements in its behavior.

International guarantees protecting the oppressed Kurds of northern Iraq are necessary. However, this should not be taken as an excuse for ongoing punitive air strikes, which perpetuate the sad history of using Kurds as pawns in international rivalries. Comprehensive initiatives for a just settlement of the Kurdish question—including the oppressed Kurdish minorities in Turkey and other countries—should be pursued by the international community.

Finally, there needs to be a greater understanding by U.S. policymakers of Iraqi politics and society, which Washington not only lacks but appears to have done little to improve upon. Most successful changes of regime in recent years have come from internal, nonviolent, popular movements.

Although there is nothing inherently wrong with the United States or other countries supporting democratic opposition movements against autocratic regimes, the U.S. has so thoroughly destroyed its credibility that little good can result from actively supporting an Iraqi opposition movement, particularly given its weakness and internal divisions. In particular, support for any kind of internal military resistance is not only futile but would give the Iraqi regime an excuse to crack down even harder against the country’s already-oppressed people. The lifting of economic sanctions, a cessation of the bombing, and an end to the threat of an invasion, offers the best hope of some kind of organized opposition emerging. However, to be successful, it must be seen as a genuinely indigenous force, not the creation of yet another ill-fated intervention by Western powers.

http://www.fpif.org/reports/us-iraq_on_the_war_path

After President’s Speech, Questions Remain Unanswered

At the House International Relations Committee markup of H.J. Res. 114, U.S. Representative Sherrod Brown (D-OH) put forward an amendment that contained a series of questions he argued the administration must answer in order for Congress to fulfill its constitutional responsibility regarding a prospective war, and to gain the confidence of the American people. The address by President George W. Bush on Monday evening failed to provide answers to these critical questions. Representative Brown’s amendment, as did a previous letter to the president from House Armed Services ranking Democrat, Ike Skelton (dated September 4th) asked a number of important questions, and requested specific information on a number of points. Among these are:

THE INFORMATION REQUESTED : A comprehensive analysis of the effect on the stability of Iraq, and the region, of any “regime change” in Iraq that may occur as the result of U.S. military action, including, but not limited to, the effect on the national aspirations of the Kurds, Turkey and its continued support for United States policy in the region, the economic and political impact on Jordan and the stability of the Jordanian Monarchy, and the economic and political stability of Saudi Arabia.

THE PRESIDENT’S RESPONSE : While pledging to “help the Iraqi people rebuild their economy and create the institutions of liberty in a unified Iraq at peace with its neighbors,” the president mentioned no specifics and offered no plan.

THE INFORMATION REQUESTED : A comprehensive statement that details the nature and extent of the international support for military operations in Iraq, and what effect, if any, a military action against Iraq will mean for the broader war on terrorism, including, but not limited to, that of support from our allies in the Middle East.

THE PRESIDENT’S RESPONSE : President Bush claimed that the United States would be leading a coalition of allies but failed to mention any countries that would be part of such a coalition. Most of our “friends” in the region–Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan–have strongly urged us not to go to war.

THE INFORMATION REQUESTED : A comprehensive plan for U.S. financial and political commitment to long-term cultural, economic, and political stabilization in a free Iraq.

THE PRESIDENT’S RESPONSE : Bush stated, “If military action is necessary, the U.S. and our allies will help the Iraqi people rebuild their economy and create the institutions of liberty in a unified Iraq, at peace with its neighbors” Yet, he failed to make any commitments. According to Thomas Friedman of the New York Times , “Decapitating Saddam’s regime will take weeks. Building Iraq into a more decent state, with a real civil society, will take years. But it is this latter project that is the most important–the one that really gets at the underlying threat from the Middle East, which is its failed states. But do we know how to do such nation rebuilding, and if we do, do Americans want to pay for it? We need to go in prepared for this task (which is unavoidable if we really intend to disarm Iraq) or stay out and rely instead on more aggressive containment, because halfhearted nation-building always ends badly and would surely weaken us.” With respect to this point, Rep. Skelton asserted in his letter to the president that, “The American people must be clear about the amount of money and the number of soldiers that will have to be devoted to this effort for many years to come.” The president has offered no such information to the American people.

As well, rebuilding Iraq will take enormous amounts of trust on both sides. As Nicholas Kristof of the New York Times noted in his October 4 report from Baghdad, this will be a difficult task. Kristof wrote, “while ordinary Iraqis were very friendly toward me, they were enraged at the U.S. after 11 years of economic sanctions…. Worse, U.S. bombing of water treatment plants … and shortages of medicines led to a more than doubling of infant mortality, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.”

THE INFORMATION REQUESTED : A comprehensive statement that details the nature and extent of the international support for military operations in Iraq, and what effect, if any, a military action against Iraq will mean for the broader war on terrorism, including, but not limited to, that of support from our allies in the Middle East.

THE PRESIDENT’S RESPONSE : President Bush claimed that the United States would be leading a coalition of allies but failed to mention any countries that would be part of such a coalition. Most of our “friends” in the region–Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan–have strongly urged us not to go to war.

THE INFORMATION REQUESTED : A cost estimate for military action and reconstruction along with a proposal for how the United States can pay for these costs.

THE PRESIDENT’S RESPONSE : There was no mention of this during President Bush’s address.

THE INFORMATION REQUESTED : An analysis of the impact on the U.S. domestic economy of the use of resources for military action and reconstruction of Iraq.

THE PRESIDENT’S RESPONSE : There was no mention of this during President Bush’s address.

THE INFORMATION REQUESTED : The letter from Rep. Skelton to the president referred to “the need for Congress, the American people, and our friends around the world to [be given the information to] understand exactly what is at stake and why we must act now.” In other words, Rep. Skelton asked the president to offer proof of an imminent threat from Iraq to the national security of the United States and its citizens.

THE PRESIDENT’S RESPONSE : President Bush reiterated accounts of Iraqi atrocities from the use of chemical weapons to support for Abu Nidal terrorists as evidence of Iraq’s aggressive intent. However, these took place during the 1980s when the United States was quietly backing the Iraqi regime. As Michael Kinsley wrote in the Washington Post (September 27, 2002), “The fact that these episodes happened years ago does not diminish their horror, and there is no reason to think that Hussein has become kinder or gentler over the years. But it does realize the question of why now, years later, they are suddenly a casus belli. If that did not constitute a good enough reason for going to war with Iraq in 1988, it certainly is not a good enough reason now.”

http://www.fpif.org/articles/after_presidents_speech_questions_remain_unanswered

United Nations Security Council Resolutions Currently Being Violated by Countries Other than Iraq

(Editor’s Note: In its effort to justify its planned invasion of Iraq, the Bush administration has emphasized the importance of enforcing UN Security Council resolutions. However, in addition to the dozen or so resolutions currently being violated by Iraq, a conservative estimate reveals that there are an additional 88 Security Council resolutions about countries other than Iraq that are also currently being violated. This raises serious questions regarding the Bush administration’s insistence that it is motivated by a duty to preserve the credibility of the United Nations, particularly since the vast majority of the governments violating UN Security Council resolutions are close allies of the United States. Stephen Zunes, University of San Francisco professor and Middle East Editor for Foreign Policy in Focus (online at www.fpif.org),compiled the following partial list of UN resolutions that are currently being violated by countries other than Iraq.)

The cases are listed in order of resolution number, followed by the year in which the resolution was passed, the country or countries in violation, and a brief description of the resolution.

Resolution 252 (1968) Israel
Urgently calls upon Israel to rescind measures that change the legal status of Jerusalem, including the expropriation of land and properties thereon.

262 (1968) Israel
Calls upon Israel to pay compensation to Lebanon for destruction of airliners at Beirut International Airport.

267 (1969) Israel
Urgently calls upon Israel to rescind measures seeking to change the legal status of occupied East Jerusalem.

271 (1969) Israel
Reiterates calls to rescind measures seeking to change the legal status of occupied East Jerusalem and calls on Israel to scrupulously abide by the Fourth Geneva Convention regarding the responsibilities of occupying powers.

298 (1971) Israel
Reiterates demand that Israel rescind measures seeking to change the legal status of occupied East Jerusalem.

353 (1974) Turkey
Calls on nations to respect the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of Cyprus and for the withdrawal without delay of foreign troops from Cyprus.

354 (1974) Turkey
Reiterates provisions of UNSC resolution 353.

360 (1974) Turkey
Reaffirms the need for compliance with prior resolutions regarding Cyprus “without delay.”

364 (1974) Turkey
Reaffirms the need for compliance with prior resolutions regarding Cyprus.

367 (1975) Turkey
Reaffirms the need for compliance with prior resolutions regarding Cyprus.

370 (1975) Turkey
Reaffirms the need for compliance with prior resolutions regarding Cyprus.

377 (1979) Morocco
Calls on countries to respect the right of self-determination for Western Sahara.

379 (1979) Morocco
Calls for the withdrawal of foreign forces from Western Sahara.

380 (1979) Morocco
Reiterates the need for compliance with previous resolutions.

391 (1976) Turkey
Reaffirms the need for compliance with prior resolutions regarding Cyprus.

401 (1976) Turkey
Reaffirms the need for compliance with prior resolutions regarding Cyprus.

414 (1977) Turkey
Reaffirms the need for compliance with prior resolutions regarding Cyprus.

422 (1977) Turkey
Reaffirms the need for compliance with prior resolutions regarding Cyprus.

440 (1978) Turkey
Reaffirms the need for compliance with prior resolutions regarding Cyprus.

446 (1979) Israel
Calls upon Israel to scrupulously abide by the Fourth Geneva Convention regarding the responsibilities of occupying powers, to rescind previous measures that violate these relevant provisions, and “in particular, not to transport parts of its civilian population into the occupied Arab territories.”

452 (1979) Israel
Calls on the government of Israel to cease, on an urgent basis, the establishment, construction, and planning of settlements in the Arab territories, occupied since 1967, including Jerusalem.

465 (1980) Israel
Reiterates previous resolutions on Israel’s settlements policy.

471 (1980) Israel
Demands prosecution of those involved in assassination attempts of West Bank leaders and compensation for damages; reiterates demands to abide by Fourth Geneva Convention.

484 (1980) Israel
Reiterates request that Israel abide by the Fourth Geneva Convention.

487 (1981) Israel
Calls upon Israel to place its nuclear facilities under the safeguard of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency.

497 (1981) Israel
Demands that Israel rescind its decision to impose its domestic laws in the occupied Syrian Golan region.

541 (1983) Turkey
Reiterates the need for compliance with prior resolutions and demands that the declaration of an independent Turkish Cypriot state be withdrawn.

550 (1984) Turkey
Reiterates UNSC resolution 541 and insists that member states may “not to facilitate or in any way assist” the secessionist entity.

573 (1985) Israel
Calls on Israel to pay compensation for human and material losses from its attack against Tunisia and to refrain from all such attacks or threats of attacks against other nations.

592 (1986) Israel
Insists Israel abide by the Fourth Geneva Conventions in East Jerusalem and other occupied territories.

605 (1987) Israel
“Calls once more upon Israel, the occupying Power, to abide immediately and scrupulously by the Geneva Convention relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Times of War, and to desist forthwith from its policies and practices that are in violations of the provisions of the Convention.”

607 (1986) Israel
Reiterates calls on Israel to abide by the Fourth Geneva Convention and to cease its practice of deportations from occupied Arab territories.

608 (1988) Israel
Reiterates call for Israel to cease its deportations.

636 (1989) Israel
Reiterates call for Israel to cease its deportations.

641 (1989) Israel
Reiterates previous resolutions calling on Israel to desist in its deportations.

658 (1990) Morocco
Calls upon Morocco to “cooperate fully” with the Secretary General of the United Nations and the chairman of the Organization of African Unity “in their efforts aimed at an early settlement of the question of Western Sahara.”

672 (1990) Israel
Reiterates calls for Israel to abide by provisions of the Fourth Geneva Convention in the occupied Arab territories.

673 (1990) Israel
Insists that Israel come into compliance with resolution 672.

681 (1990) Israel
Reiterates call on Israel to abide by Fourth Geneva Convention in the occupied Arab territories.

690 (1991) Morocco
Calls upon both parties to cooperate fully with the Secretary General in implementing a referendum on the fate of the territory.

694 (1991) Israel
Reiterates that Israel “must refrain from deporting any Palestinian civilian from the occupied territories and ensure the safe and immediate return of all those deported.”

716 (1991) Turkey
Reaffirms previous resolutions on Cyprus.

725 (1991) Morocco
“Calls upon the two parties to cooperate fully in the settlement plan.”

726 (1992) Israel
Reiterates calls on Israel to abide by the Fourth Geneva Convention and to cease its practice of deportations from occupied Arab territories.

799 (1992) Israel
“Reaffirms applicability of Fourth Geneva Convention…to all Palestinian territories occupied by Israel since 1967, including Jerusalem, and affirms that deportation of civilians constitutes a contravention of its obligations under the Convention.”

809 (1992) Morocco
Reiterates call to cooperate with the peace settlement plan, particularly regarding voter eligibility for referendum.

822 (1993) Armenia
Calls for Armenia to implement the “immediate withdrawal of all occupying forces from the Kelbadjar district and other recently occupied areas of Azerbaijan.”

853 (1993) Armenia
Demands “complete and unconditional withdrawal of the occupying forces” from Azerbaijani territory.

874 (1993) Armenia
Reiterates calls for withdrawal of occupation forces.

884 (1993) Armenia
Calls on Armenia to use its influence to force compliance by Armenian militias to previous resolutions and to withdraw its remaining occupation forces.

904 (1994) Israel
Calls upon Israel, as the occupying power, “to take and implement measures, inter alia, confiscation of arms, with the aim of preventing illegal acts of violence by settlers.”

973 (1995) Morocco
Reiterates the need for cooperation with United Nations and expediting referendum on the fate of Western Sahara.

995 (1995) Morocco
Calls for “genuine cooperation” with UN efforts to move forward with a referendum.

1002 (1995) Morocco
Reiteration of call for “genuine cooperation” with UN efforts.

1009 (1995) Croatia
Demands that Croatia “respect fully the rights of the local Serb population to remain, leave, or return in safety.”

1017 (1995) Morocco
Reiterates the call for “genuine cooperation” with UN efforts and to cease “procrastinating actions which could further delay the referendum.”

1033 (1995) Morocco
Reiterates call for “genuine cooperation” with UN efforts.

1044 (1996) Sudan
Calls upon Sudan to extradite to Ethiopia for prosecution three suspects in an assassination attempt of visiting Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and to cease its support for sanctuary and offering of sanctuary to terrorists.

1054 (1996) Sudan
Demands that Sudan come into compliance with UNSC resolution 1044.

1056 (1996) Morocco
Calls for the release of political prisoners from occupied Western Sahara.

1070 (1996) Sudan
Reiterates demands to comply with 1044 and 1054.

1073 (1996) Israel
“Calls on the safety and security of Palestinian civilians to be ensured.”

1079 (1996) Croatia
Reaffirms right of return for Serbian refugees to Croatia.

1092 (1996) Turkey/Cyprus
Calls for a reduction of foreign troops in Cyprus as the first step toward a total withdrawal troops as well as a reduction in military spending.

1117 (1997) Turkey/Cyprus
Reiterates call for a reduction of foreign troops in Cyprus as the first step toward a total withdrawal troops and reduction in military spending.

1120 (1997) Croatia
Reaffirms right of return for Serbian refugees to Croatia and calls on Croatia to change certain policies that obstruct this right, and to treat its citizens equally regardless of ethnic origin.

1145 (1997) Croatia
Reiterates Croatian responsibility in supporting the political and economic rights of its people regardless of ethnic origin.

1172 (1998) India, Pakistan
Calls upon India and Pakistan to cease their development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.

1178 (1998) Turkey/Cyprus
Reiterates call for a substantial reduction of foreign troops and reduction in military spending.

1185 (1998) Morocco
Calls for the lifting of restrictions of movement by aircraft of UN peacekeeping force.

1215 (1998) Morocco
Urges Morocco to promptly sign a “status of forces agreement.”

1217 (1998) Turkey/Cyprus
Reiterates call for a substantial reduction of foreign troops and reduction in military spending.

1251 (1999) Turkey/Cyprus
Reiterates call for a substantial reduction of foreign troops and reduction in military spending.

1264 (1999) Indonesia
Calls on Indonesia to provide safe return for refugees and punish those for acts of violence during and after the referendum campaign.

1272 (1999) Indonesia
Stresses the need for Indonesia to provide for the safe return for refugees and maintain the civilian and humanitarian character of refugee camps.

1283 (1999) Turkey/Cyprus
Reiterates UNSC resolution 1251.

1303 (2000) Turkey/Cyprus
Reiterates UNSC resolutions 1283 and 1251.

1319 (2000) Indonesia
Insists that Indonesia “take immediate additional steps, in fulfillment of its responsibilities, to disarm and disband the militia immediately, restore law and order in the affected areas of West Timor, ensure safety and security in the refugee camps and for humanitarian workers, and prevent incursions into East Timor.” Stresses that those guilty of attacks on international personnel be brought to justice and reiterates the need to provide safe return for refugees who wish to repatriate and provide resettlement for those wishing to stay in Indonesia.

1322 (2000) Israel
Calls upon Israel to scrupulously abide by the Fourth Geneva Convention regarding the responsibilities of occupying power.

1331 (2000) Turkey/Cyprus
Reiterates UNSC resolution 1251 and subsequent resolutions.

1338 (2001) Indonesia
Calls for Indonesian cooperation with the UN and other international agencies in the fulfillment of UNSC resolution 1319.

1359 (2001) Morocco
Calls on the parties to “abide by their obligations under international humanitarian law to release without further delay all those held since the start of the conflict.”

1384 (2001) Turkey/Cyprus
Reiterates 1251 and all relevant resolutions on Cyprus.

1402 (2002) Israel
Calls for Israel to withdraw from Palestinian cities.

1403 (2002) Israel
Demands that Israel go through with “the implementation of its resolution 1402, without delay.”

1405 (2002) Israel
Calls for UN inspectors to investigate civilian deaths during an Israeli assault on the Jenin refugee camp.

1416 (2002) Turkey/Cyprus
Reiterates UNSC resolution 1251 and all relevant resolutions on Cyprus.

1435 (2002) Israel
Calls on Israel to withdraw to positions of September 2000 and end its military activities in and around Ramallah, including the destruction of security and civilian infrastructure.

Explanatory Notes:

This list deals exclusively with resolutions of the United Nations Security Council, a fifteen-member body consisting of five permanent members (the United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom) and ten non-permanent members elected for rotating two-year terms representing various regions of the world. The Security Council’s primary responsibility, under the UN Charter, is for the maintenance of international peace and security. For a resolution to pass, it must be approved by a majority of the total membership with no dissenting vote from any of the five permanent members. Since the early 1970s, the United States has used its veto power nearly fifty times, more than all other permanent members during that same period combined. In the vast majority of these cases, the U.S. was the only dissenting vote. The preceding list, therefore, includes only resolutions where the United States voted in the affirmative or abstained.

This list does not include resolutions that merely condemn a particular action, only those that specifically proscribe a particular ongoing activity or future activity and/or call upon a particular government to implement a particular action. Nor does this list does include resolutions where the language is ambiguous enough to make assertions of noncompliance debatable, such as UNSC resolutions 242 and 338 on the Arab-Israeli conflict that put forward the formula of “land for peace,” to cite the most famous. Similarly, it does not include broad resolutions calling for universal compliance not in reference to a particular conflict, particularly if there is not a clear definition. For example, in a resolution that proscribes the harboring of terrorists, there is no clear definition for what constitutes a terrorist. This list does not include nonstate actors, such as secessionist governments, rebel groups or terrorists, only recognized nation-states.

Furthermore, this list does not include resolutions that were also violated for a number of years that are now moot (such as those dealing with Indonesia’s occupation of East Timor, South Africa’s occupation of Namibia, and Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon). If these were also included, the number of violations would double. In most of these cases, the United States played a key role in blocking enforcement of these resolutions as well.

Finally, it should be noted that this is only a partial list, since some of the resolutions involved technical questions I was unable to judge, particularly when they involved parts of the world with which we were less familiar.

http://www.fpif.org/articles/united_nations_security_council_resolutions_currently_being_violated_by_countries_other_than_iraq

The Case Against War

Despite growing opposition, both at home and abroad, the Bush Administration appears to have begun its concerted final push to convince Congress, the American people and the world of the need to invade Iraq. Such an invasion would constitute an important precedent, being the first test of the new doctrine articulated by President Bush of “pre-emption,” which declares that the United States has the right to invade sovereign countries and overthrow their governments if they are seen as hostile to American interests. At stake is not just the prospect of a devastating war but the very legitimacy of an international system built over the past century that–despite its failings–has created at least some semblance of global order and stability.

It is therefore critical to examine and rebut the Administration’s arguments, because if as fundamental a policy decision as whether to go to war cannot be influenced by the active input of an informed citizenry, what also may be at stake is nothing less than American democracy, at least in any meaningful sense of the word.

Below are the eight principal arguments put forward by proponents of a US invasion of Iraq, each followed by a rebuttal.

1. Iraq is providing support for Al Qaeda and is a center for anti-American terrorism.

The Bush Administration has failed to produce credible evidence that the Iraqi regime has any links whatsoever with Al Qaeda. None of the September 11 hijackers were Iraqi, no major figure in Al Qaeda is Iraqi, nor has any part of Al Qaeda’s money trail been traced to Iraq. Investigations by the FBI, the CIA and Czech intelligence have found no substance to rumors of a meeting in spring 2001 between one of the September 11 hijackers and an Iraqi intelligence operative in Prague. It is highly unlikely that the decidedly secular Baathist regime–which has savagely suppressed Islamists within Iraq–would be able to maintain close links with Osama bin Laden and his followers. Saudi Prince Turki bin Faisal, his country’s former intelligence chief, has noted that bin Laden views Saddam Hussein “as an apostate, an infidel, or someone who is not worthy of being a fellow Muslim.” In fact, bin Laden offered in 1990 to raise an army of thousands of mujahedeen fighters to liberate Kuwait from Iraqi occupation.

There have been credible reports of extremist Islamist groups operating in northern Iraq, but these are exclusively within Kurdish areas, which have been outside Baghdad’s control since the end of the Gulf War. Iraq’s past terrorist links are limited to such secular groups as the one led by Abu Nidal, a now largely defunct Palestinian faction opposed to Yasir Arafat’s Palestine Liberation Organization. Ironically, at the height of Iraq’s support of Abu Nidal in the early 1980s, Washington dropped Iraq from its list of terrorism-sponsoring countries so the United States could bolster Iraq’s war effort against Iran. Baghdad was reinstated to the list only after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990, even though US officials were unable to cite increased Iraqi ties to terrorism.

The State Department’s own annual study, Patterns of Global Terrorism, could not list any serious act of international terrorism connected to the government of Iraq. A recent CIA report indicates that the Iraqis have been consciously avoiding any actions against the United States or its facilities abroad, presumably to deny Washington any excuse to engage in further military strikes against their country. The last clear example that American officials can cite of Iraqi-backed terrorism was an alleged plot by Iraqi agents to assassinate former President George Bush when he visited Kuwait in 1993. (In response, President Bill Clinton ordered the bombing of Baghdad, hitting an Iraqi intelligence headquarters as well as a nearby civilian neighborhood.)

An American invasion of Iraq would not only distract from the more immediate threat posed by Al Qaeda but would likely result in an anti-American backlash that would substantially reduce the level of cooperation from Islamic countries in tracking down and neutralizing the remaining Al Qaeda cells. Indeed, the struggle against terrorism is too important to be sabotaged by ideologues obsessed with settling old scores.

2. Containment has failed.

While some countries, in part due to humanitarian concerns, are circumventing economic sanctions against Iraq, the military embargo appears to be holding solid. It was only as a result of the import of technology and raw materials from Russia, Germany, France, Britain and the United States that Iraq was able to develop its biological, chemical and nuclear weapons programs in the 1980s.

Iraq’s armed forces are barely one-third their pre-Gulf War strength. Even though Iraq has not been required to reduce its conventional forces, the destruction of its weapons and the country’s economic collapse have led to a substantial reduction in men under arms. Iraq’s navy is now virtually nonexistent, and its air force is just a fraction of what it was before the war. Military spending by Iraq has been estimated at barely one-tenth of what it was in the 1980s. The Bush Administration has been unable to explain why today, when Saddam has only a tiny percentage of his once-formidable military capability, Iraq is now considered such a threat that it is necessary to invade the country and replace its leader–the same leader Washington quietly supported during the peak of Iraq’s military capability.

The International Atomic Energy Agency declared in 1998 that Iraq’s nuclear program had been completely dismantled. The UN Special Commission on Iraq (UNSCOM) estimated then that at least 95 percent of Iraq’s chemical weapons program had been similarly accounted for and destroyed. Iraq’s potential to develop biological weapons is a much bigger question mark, since such a program is much easier to hide. However, UNSCOM noted in 1998 that virtually all of Iraq’s offensive missiles and other delivery systems had been accounted for and rendered inoperable. Rebuilding an offensive military capability utilizing weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) virtually from scratch would be extraordinarily difficult under the current international embargo.

3. Deterrence will not work against a Saddam Hussein with weapons of mass destruction.

Saddam Hussein has demonstrated repeatedly that he cares first and foremost about his own survival. He presumably recognizes that any attempt to use WMDs against the United States or any of its allies would inevitably lead to his own destruction. This is why he did not use them during the Gulf War, even when attacked by the largest coalition of international forces against a single nation ever assembled and subjected to the heaviest bombing in world history. By contrast, prior to the Gulf War, Saddam was quite willing to utilize his arsenal of chemical weapons against Iranian forces because he knew the revolutionary Islamist regime was isolated internationally, and he was similarly willing to use them against Kurdish civilians because he knew they could not fight back. In the event of a US invasion, however, seeing his overthrow as imminent and with nothing to lose, this logic of self-preservation would no longer be operative. Instead, a US invasion–rather than eliminate the prospect of Iraq using its WMDs–would in fact dramatically increase the likelihood of his utilizing weapons of mass destruction should he actually have any at his disposal.

Saddam Hussein’s leadership style has always been that of direct control; his distrust of subordinates (bordering on paranoia) is one of the ways he has been able to hold on to power. It is extremely unlikely that he would go to the risk and expense of developing weapons of mass destruction only to pass them on to some group of terrorists, particularly radical Islamists who could easily turn on him. If he does have such weapons at his disposal, they would be for use at his discretion alone. By contrast, in the chaos of a US invasion and its aftermath, the chances of such weapons being smuggled out of the country into the hands of terrorists would greatly increase. Currently, any Iraqi WMDs that may exist are under the control of a highly centralized regime more interested in deterring a US attack than provoking one.

4. International inspectors cannot insure that Iraq will not obtain weapons of mass destruction.

As a result of the inspections regime imposed by the United Nations at the end of the Gulf War, virtually all of Iraq’s stockpile of WMDs, delivery systems and capability of producing such weapons were destroyed. During nearly eight years of operation, UNSCOM oversaw the destruction of 38,000 chemical weapons, 480,000 liters of live chemical-weapons agents, forty-eight missiles, six missile launchers, thirty missile warheads modified to carry chemical or biological agents, and hundreds of pieces of related equipment with the capability to produce chemical weapons.

In late 1997 UNSCOM director Richard Butler reported that UNSCOM had made “significant progress” in tracking Iraq’s chemical weapons program and that 817 of the 819 Soviet-supplied long-range missiles had been accounted for. A couple of dozen Iraqi-made ballistic missiles remained unaccounted for, but these were of questionable caliber. In its last three years of operation, UNSCOM was unable to detect any evidence that Iraq had been concealing prohibited weapons.

The periodic interference and harassment of UNSCOM inspectors by the Iraqis was largely limited to sensitive sites too small for advanced nuclear or chemical weapons development or deployment. A major reason for this lack of cooperation was Iraqi concern–later proven valid–that the United States was abusing the inspections for espionage purposes, such as monitoring coded radio communications by Iraq’s security forces, using equipment secretly installed by American inspectors. The United States, eager to launch military strikes against Iraq, instructed Butler in 1998 to provoke Iraq into breaking its agreement to fully cooperate with UNSCOM. Without consulting the UN Security Council as required, Butler announced to the Iraqis that he was nullifying agreements dealing with sensitive sites and chose the Baath Party headquarters in Baghdad–a very unlikely place to store weapons of mass destruction–as the site at which to demand unfettered access. The Iraqis refused. Clinton then asked Butler to withdraw UNSCOM forces, and the United States launched a four-day bombing campaign, which gave the Iraqis an excuse to block UNSCOM inspectors from returning. With no international inspectors in Iraq since then, there is no definitive answer as to whether Iraq is actually developing weapons of mass destruction. And as long as the United States continues to openly espouse “regime change” through assassination or invasion, it is very unlikely that Iraq will agree to a resumption of inspections.

5. The United States has the legal right to impose a regime change through military force.

According to Articles 41 and 42 of the UN Charter, no member state has the right to enforce any resolution militarily unless the Security Council determines that there has been a material breach of its resolution, decides that all nonmilitary means of enforcement have been exhausted and specifically authorizes the use of military force. This is what the Security Council did in November 1990 with Resolution 678 in response to Iraq’s occupation of Kuwait, which violated a series of resolutions demanding their withdrawal that passed that August. When Iraq finally complied in its forced withdrawal from Kuwait in March 1991, this resolution became moot.

Legally, the conflict regarding access for UN inspectors and possible Iraqi procurement of WMDs has always been between the Iraqi government and the UN, not between Iraq and the United States. Although UN Security Council Resolution 687, which demands Iraqi disarmament, was the most detailed in the world body’s history, no military enforcement mechanisms were specified. Nor has the Security Council specified any military enforcement mechanisms in subsequent resolutions. As is normally the case when it is determined that governments are violating all or part of UN resolutions, any decision about enforcement is a matter for the Security Council as a whole–not for any one member of the Council.

If the United States can unilaterally claim the right to invade Iraq because of that country’s violation of Security Council resolutions, other Council members could logically also claim the right to invade states that are similarly in violation; for example, Russia could claim the right to invade Israel, France could claim the right to invade Turkey and Britain could claim the right to invade Morocco. The US insistence on the right to attack unilaterally could seriously undermine the principle of collective security and the authority of the UN and, in doing so, would open the door to international anarchy.

International law is quite clear about when military force is allowed. In addition to the aforementioned case of UN Security Council authorization, the only other time that a member state is allowed to use armed force is described in Article 51, which states that it is permissible for “individual or collective self-defense” against “armed attack…until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security.” If Iraq’s neighbors were attacked, any of these countries could call on the United States to help, pending a Security Council decision authorizing the use of force.

Based on evidence that the Bush Administration has made public, there doesn’t appear to be anything close to sufficient legal grounds for the United States to convince the Security Council to approve the use of military force against Iraq in US self-defense.

6. The benefits of regime change outweigh the costs.

While the United States would likely be the eventual victor in a war against Iraq, it would come at an enormous cost. It would be a mistake, for example, to think that defeating Iraq would result in as few American casualties as occurred in driving the Taliban militia from Kabul last autumn. Though Iraq’s offensive capabilities have been severely weakened by the bombings, sanctions and UNSCOM-sponsored decommissioning, its defensive military capabilities are still strong.

Nor would a military victory today be as easy as during the Gulf War. Prior to the launching of Operation Desert Storm, the Iraqi government decided not to put up a fight for Kuwait and relied mostly on young conscripts from minority communities. Only two of the eight divisions of the elite Republican Guard were ever in Kuwait, and they pulled back before the war began. The vast majority of Iraq’s strongest forces were withdrawn to areas around Baghdad to fight for the survival of the regime itself, and they remain there to this day. In the event of war, defections from these units are not likely.

Close to 1 million members of the Iraqi elite have a vested interest in the regime’s survival. These include the Baath Party leadership and its supporters, security and intelligence personnel, and core elements of the armed forces and their extended families. Furthermore, Iraq–a largely urban society–has a far more sophisticated infrastructure than does the largely rural and tribal Afghanistan, and it could be mobilized in the event of a foreign invasion.

Nor is there an equivalent to Afghanistan’s Northern Alliance, which did the bulk of the ground fighting against the Taliban. Iraqi Kurds, having been abandoned twice in recent history by the United States, are unlikely to fight beyond securing autonomy for Kurdish areas. The armed Shiite opposition has largely been eliminated, and it too would be unlikely to fight beyond liberating the majority Shiite sections of southern Iraq. The United States would be reluctant to support either, given that their successes could potentially fragment the country and would encourage both rebellious Kurds in southeastern Turkey and restive Shiites in northeastern Saudi Arabia. US forces would have to march on Baghdad, a city of more than 5 million people, virtually alone.

Unlike in the Gulf War, which involved conventional and open combat in flat desert areas where US and allied forces could take full advantage of their superior firepower and technology, US soldiers would have to fight their way through heavily populated agricultural and urban lands. Invading forces would likely be faced with bitter, house-to-house fighting in a country larger than South Vietnam. Iraqis, who may have had little stomach to fight to maintain their country’s conquest of Kuwait, would be far more willing to sacrifice themselves to resist a foreign, Western invader. To minimize American casualties in the face of such stiff resistance, the United States would likely engage in heavy bombing of Iraqi residential neighborhoods, resulting in high civilian casualties.

The lack of support from regional allies could result in the absence of a land base from which to launch US air attacks, initially requiring the United States to rely on Navy jets launched from aircraft carriers. Without permission to launch aerial refueling craft, even long-range bombers from US air bases might not be deployable. It is hard to imagine being able to provide the necessary reconnaissance and surveillance aircraft under such circumstances, and the deployment of tens of thousands of troops from distant staging areas could be problematic. American forces could conceivably capture an air base inside Iraq in the course of the fighting, but without the pre-positioning of supplies, its usefulness as a major center of operations would be marginal.

Such a major military operation would be costly in economic terms as well, as the struggling and debt-ridden US economy would be burdened by the most elaborate and expensive deployment of American forces since World War II, totaling more than $100 billion in the first six months. Unlike in the Gulf War, the Saudis–who strenuously oppose such an invasion–would be unwilling to foot the bill. An invasion of Iraq would also be costly to a struggling world economy; higher oil prices could be devastating to some countries, causing even more social and political unrest.

7. Regime change will be popular in Iraq and will find support among US allies in the region.

While there is little question that most of Iraq’s neighbors and most Iraqis themselves would be pleased to see Iraq under new leadership, regime change imposed by invading US military forces would not be welcome. Most US allies in the region supported the Gulf War, since it was widely viewed as an act of collective security in response to aggression by Iraq against its small neighbor. This would not be the case, however, in the event of a new war against Iraq. Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah has warned that the Bush Administration “should not strike Iraq, because such an attack would only raise animosity in the region against the United States.” At the Beirut summit of the Arab League at the end of March, the Arab nations unanimously endorsed a strongly worded resolution opposing an attack against Iraq. Even Kuwait has reconciled with Iraq since Baghdad formally recognized Kuwait’s sovereignty and international borders. Twenty Arab foreign ministers meeting in Cairo in early September unanimously expressed their “total rejection of the threat of aggression on Arab nations, in particular Iraq.”

American officials claim that, public statements to the contrary, there may be some regional allies willing to support a US war effort. Given President Bush’s ultimatum that “either you are with us or you are with the terrorists,” it’s quite possible that some governments will be successfully pressured to go along. However, almost any Middle Eastern regime willing to provide such support and cooperation would be doing so over the opposition of the vast majority of its citizens. Given the real political risks for any ruler supporting the US war effort, such acquiescence would take place only reluctantly, as a result of US pressure or inducements, not from a sincere belief in the validity of the military operation.

8. “Regime change” will enhance regional stability and enhance the prospects for democracy in the region.

As is apparent in Afghanistan, throwing a government out is easier than putting a new one together. Although most Iraqis would presumably be relieved in the event of Saddam Hussein’s ouster, this does not mean that a regime installed by a Western army would be welcomed. For example, some of the leading candidates that US officials are apparently considering installing to govern Iraq following a successful US invasion are former Iraqi military officers who took part in offensives that involved war crimes.

In addition to possible ongoing guerrilla action by Saddam Hussein’s supporters, American occupation forces would likely be faced with competing armed factions among the Sunni Arab population, not to mention Kurdish and Shiite rebel groups seeking greater autonomy. This could lead the United States into a bloody counterinsurgency war. Without the support of other countries or the UN, a US invasion could leave American forces effectively alone attempting to enforce a peace amid the chaos of a post-Saddam Iraq.

A US invasion of Iraq would likely lead to an outbreak of widespread anti-American protests throughout the Middle East, perhaps even attacks against American interests. Some pro-Western regimes could become vulnerable to internal radical forces. Passions are particularly high in light of strong US support for the policies of Israel’s rightist government and its ongoing occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The anger over US double standards regarding Israeli and Iraqi violations of UN Security Council resolutions and possession of weapons of mass destruction could reach a boiling point. Recognizing that the United States cannot be defeated on the battlefield, more and more Arabs and Muslims resentful of American hegemony in their heartland may be prone to attack by unconventional means, as was so tragically demonstrated last September 11. The Arab foreign ministers, aware of such possibilities, warned at their meeting in Cairo that a US invasion of Iraq would “open the gates of hell.”

Bush’s United Nations Speech Unconvincing

The last time–and only time–the United States came before the United Nations to accuse a radical Third World government of threatening the security of the United States through weapons of mass destruction was in October 1962. In the face of a skeptical world and Cuban and Soviet denials, U.S. ambassador Adlai Stevenson presented dramatic photos clearly showing the construction of nuclear missiles on Cuban soil. While the resulting U.S. military blockade and brinksmanship was not universally supported, there was little question that the United States had the evidence and that the threat was real.

Despite vastly improved reconnaissance technology in the subsequent forty years, President George W. Bush, in his long-anticipated speech before the United Nations, was unable to present any clear proof that Iraq currently has weapons of mass destruction or functioning offensive delivery systems.

Yet lack of credible evidence was only one problem with the president’s speech.

For example, his comparison with the League of Nation’s failure to stand up before Japanese, Italian, and German aggression in the 1930s is completely ahistorical. The Axis powers were heavily industrialized countries that had conquered vast stretches of Europe, Asia, and Africa. Today’s Iraq, by contrast, is an impoverished Third World country that for twelve years has been under the strictest sanctions in world history and has long since been forced to withdraw from neighbors it once briefly occupied.

President Bush also asserted that Iraq was poised to march on other countries back when it seized Kuwait in 1990–a charge originally made by his father–to demonstrate the need for unilateral American initiatives. This claim, however, has long-since been disproven by subsequently released satellite photos that showed less than one-third the number of Iraqi soldiers in Kuwait than claimed by the United States and that–rather than massing on the border as alleged–they were actually digging in to defensive positions around Kuwait City.

Virtually every delegate representing the world’s nations present at the President’s speech must have recognized the brazen act of hypocrisy in citing findings by the UN Human Rights Commission on Iraq, whose reports criticizing the human rights records of American allies have often been summarily dismissed by U.S. officials.

Double standards were most apparent, however, in President Bush’s stress on the importance of enforcing UN resolutions.

The list of UN Security Council resolutions violated by Iraq cited by President Bush pales in comparison to the list of UN Security Council resolutions currently being violated by U.S. allies. Not only has the United States not suggested invading these countries, the U.S. has blocked sanctions or other means of enforcing them and even provides the military and economic aid that helps make these ongoing violations possible.

For example, in 1975, the UN Security Council passed a series of resolutions demanding that Morocco withdraw its occupation forces from the country of Western Sahara and that Indonesia withdraw its occupation forces from East Timor. However, then-U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Daniel Patrick Moynihan later bragged that, “The Department of State desired that the United Nations prove utterly ineffective in whatever measures it undertook. The task was given to me, and I carried it forward with not inconsiderable success.”

East Timor finally won its freedom in 1999 after 24 years of U.S.-backed occupation. Moroccan forces still occupy Western Sahara, however, with the Bush administration supporting Morocco’s defiance of subsequent UN Security Council resolutions that simply call for an internationally supervised referendum for the Western Saharan population to determine the fate of their desert nation.

Meanwhile, Turkey remains in violation of UN Security Council resolutions 353 and 354 calling for its withdrawal from northern Cyprus, which this NATO ally of the United States has occupied since 1974.

The most extensive violator of UN Security Council resolutions is Israel, by far the largest recipient of U.S. military and economic aid. Israel’s refusal to respond positively to the formal acceptance last March by the Arab League to the land for peace formula put forward in UN Security Council resolutions 242 and 338 arguably puts Israel in violation of these resolutions, long seen as the basis for Middle East peace. There can be no argument, however, that Israel remains in defiance of a series of other UN Security Council resolutions. These include resolutions 262 and 267 that demand Israel rescind its annexation of greater East Jerusalem, as well as the more than dozen other resolutions demanding Israel cease its violations of the Fourth Geneva Convention, such as deportations, demolitions of homes, collective punishment, and seizure of private property.

Unlike some of the hypocritical and mean-spirited anti-Israel resolutions passed by the UN General Assembly, such as the now-rescinded 1975 resolution equating Zionism and racism, these Security Council resolutions challenging Israeli policies have been well-grounded in international law.

For example, UN Security Council resolutions 446 and 465 require that Israel evacuate all of its illegal settlements on occupied Arab lands. The United States, however, insists the fate of the settlements is a matter of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. In fact, the Clinton Peace Plan of December 2000 would have allowed Israel to illegally annex most of these settlements and surrounding areas into Israel. Even more disturbing, the U.S. decision to help fund Israel’s construction of Jewish-only “bypass roads” in the occupied West Bank to connect the illegal settlements with Israel puts the United States in violation of Article 7 of resolution 465, which prohibits member states from facilitating Israel’s colonization drive.

There is little doubt that the Iraqi regime of Saddam Hussein is in violation of UN Security Council resolutions. The regime must indeed either be forced to change its behavior or be replaced. That, however, is a decision for the Iraqi people or the United Nations, not the United States alone.

According to Articles 41 and 42 of the UN Charter, no member state has the right to enforce any resolution militarily unless the Security Council determines that there has been a material breach of its resolution, decides that all nonmilitary means of enforcement have been exhausted and specifically authorizes the use of military force. This is what the Security Council did in November 1990 with Resolution 678 in response to Iraq’s occupation of Kuwait, which violated a series of resolutions passed that August that demanded their withdrawal. When Iraq finally complied by withdrawing from Kuwait in March 1991, this resolution became moot.

Although UN Security Council Resolution 687, which demands Iraqi disarmament, was the most detailed in the world body’s history, no military enforcement mechanisms were specified. Nor has the Security Council specified any military enforcement mechanisms in subsequent resolutions. As is normally the case when it is determined that governments are violating all or part of UN resolutions, any decision about enforcement is a matter for the Security Council as a whole–not for any one member of the Council.

If the United States can unilaterally claim the right to invade Iraq because of that country’s violation of Security Council resolutions, other Council members could logically also claim the right to invade states that are similarly in violation; for example, Russia could claim the right to invade Israel, France could claim the right to invade Turkey, and Britain could claim the right to invade Morocco. The U.S. insistence on the right to attack unilaterally could seriously undermine the principle of collective security and the authority of the UN and, in doing so, would open the door to international anarchy.

Until the Bush administration ends its gross exaggerations of Iraq’s current offensive military capabilities, double standards on human rights and UN Security Council resolutions, and ongoing threats to illegally invade Iraq, the United States simply does not have the credibility to lead the international effort to challenge Saddam Hussein’s regime.

http://www.fpif.org/articles/bushs_united_nations_speech_unconvincing

Why Not to Wage War with Iraq

Despite growing opposition, the Bush administration is pushing for a U.S. invasion of Iraq. Before the public and Congress allow such a dangerous and unprecedented use of American military power, they should seriously consider the following:

1. A War Against Iraq Would Be Illegal

The United Nations Security Council resolution authorizing the use of force against Iraq in 1990 applied only to the enforcement of previous resolutions calling for an Iraqi withdrawal from Kuwait, nothing more. Iraq remains in violation of some subsequent resolutions, but the United Nations has not authorized the use of force to enforce them. Without the explicit authorization of the UN Security Council or an attack by Iraq against the United States or its allies, a war against Iraq would be illegal.

2. There Is No Hard Evidence Linking Saddam Hussein to Al Qaeda

Reports of an alleged meeting in Prague between an Iraqi intelligence officer and one of the hijackers of the doomed airplanes that crashed into the World Trade Center have been investigated by the FBI, the CIA, and Czech intelligence and were found groundless. None of the hijackers were Iraqi, no major figure in Al Qaeda is Iraqi, and no funds to Al Qaeda have been traced to Iraq. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has provided no evidence for his assertion that important Al Qaeda operatives are in Iraq under Saddam Hussein’s protection. Despite the regime’s occasional use of Islamist rhetoric, the decidedly secular ruling Baath party in Baghdad and the Islamic fundamentalist Al Qaeda have long been in vehement opposition to one another. The State Department’s latest annual study, Patterns of Global Terrorism, 2001, did not list any acts of international terrorism linked to the government of Iraq.

3. There Is No Firm Proof that Iraq Is Developing Weapons of Mass Destruction

Iraq has certainly developed weapons of mass destruction in the past, but there is no evidence it has such weapons now. The International Atomic Energy Agency has categorically declared that Iraq no longer has a nuclear program. UNSCOM–the UN monitoring mission in Iraq–reportedly destroyed at least 95% of Iraq’s chemical weapons capability. The state of Iraq’s biological weapons capability is less clear, but virtually all of Iraq’s medium-range missiles and other delivery systems have been accounted for and destroyed. Iraq’s development of weapons of mass destruction in the 1980s was made possible in large part by the importation of key components from the United States and other industrialized countries. This can no longer be done due to the sanctions. Furthermore, Saddam Hussein has demonstrated that he cares first and foremost about his own survival, and he presumably recognizes that any effort to use weapons of mass destruction or to pass them on to a terrorist group would inevitably lead to his own destruction. However, with nothing to lose in the event of a U.S. invasion, the likelihood of Saddam ordering the use of any weapons of mass destruction he may have at his disposal would dramatically increase.

4. Regional Allies Widely Oppose a U.S. Attack

The 1991 Gulf War was widely viewed as an act of collective security in response to aggression by Iraq against Kuwait and therefore had the support of several important Arab allies. This would not be the case, however, in the event of a new war against Iraq. At the Beirut summit of the Arab League in March, the Arab nations–including Kuwait–unanimously endorsed a resolution opposing an attack against Iraq. In the event of a U.S. invasion of Iraq, there would likely be an outbreak of widespread anti-American protests, perhaps even attacks against American interests. Some pro-Western regimes could become vulnerable to internal radical forces as part of such a reaction.

5. Iraq Is No Longer a Significant Military Threat to Its Neighbors

Iraq’s offensive capabilities have been severely weakened by years of bombings, sanctions, and UN-sponsored decommissioning. Its current armed forces are barely one-third their pre-Gulf War strength. Iraq’s navy is virtually nonexistent, and its air force is just a fraction of what it was before the war. Military spending by Iraq has been estimated at barely one-tenth of its level in the 1980s, and the belief is that the country has no more functioning missiles. None of Iraq’s immediate neighbors have expressed any concern about a possible Iraqi invasion in the foreseeable future. The Bush administration has been unable to explain why today, when Saddam Hussein has only a tiny percentage of his once-formidable military capability, Iraq is considered such a threat that it is necessary to invade the country and replace its leader–the same leader that Washington quietly supported during the peak of Iraq’s military capability.

6. There Are Still Nonmilitary Options Available

The best way to stop the potential of Iraq developing weapons of mass destruction would be through resuming United Nations inspections, which–despite episodes of Iraqi noncooperation and harassment–have been largely successful. It was Washington’s ill-considered decision to misuse the inspection teams for spying operations and the decision to engage in an intense four-day bombing campaign against Iraq in December 1998 that led Saddam Hussein to cease his cooperation completely. The Iraqi regime has since expressed a willingness to allow the inspections to resume, but the Bush administration has shown little interest in pushing for a resumption of inspections, declaring its intention to invade anyway. In addition, there is no reason why the current emphasis on deterrence could not continue to work, particularly given the strict sanctions already in place on imports of technologies that could be used for weapons production.

7. Defeating Iraq Would Be Militarily Difficult

The U.S.-backed Iraqi opposition is almost exclusively in exile. There is no equivalent of Afghanistan’s Northern Alliance to lead the fight on the ground. U.S. forces would have to march on Baghdad, a city of over five million people, virtually alone. Iraq’s defensive military capabilities are still strong, since the regime’s elite forces–which avoided conflict during the Gulf War and left poorly trained conscripts to do the fighting–are still intact. Unlike the Gulf War, which involved conventional and open combat on a flat desert that allowed U.S. forces to take full advantage of their superior firepower and technology, U.S. soldiers would have to fight their way through heavily populated agricultural and urban areas. To minimize American casualties in the face of such stiff resistance, which would largely come from within crowded urban areas, the United States would likely engage in heavy bombing of Iraqi residential neighborhoods, resulting in very high civilian casualties.

http://www.fpif.info/fpiftxt/442

Seven Reasons to Oppose a U.S. Invasion of Iraq

The United States still appears determined to move forward with plans to engage in a large-scale military operation against Iraq to overthrow the regime of Saddam Hussein. In the international community, however, serious questions are being raised regarding its legality, its justification, its political implications, and the costs of the war itself. Such an invasion would constitute an important precedent, being the first test of the new doctrine articulated by President George W. Bush of “preemption,” which declares that the United States has the right to invade sovereign countries and overthrow their governments if they are seen as hostile to U.S. interests. All previous large-scale interventions by American forces abroad have been rationalized—albeit not always convincingly to many observers—on the principle of collective self-defense, such as through regional organizations like the South East Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) or the Organization of American States (OAS). To invade Iraq would constitute an unprecedented repudiation of the international legal conventions that such American presidents as Woodrow Wilson, Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman, and Dwight Eisenhower helped create in order to build a safer world.

Although there have been some questions raised recently about the scale and logistics of such a military operation, including such key Republicans as House Majority Leader Dick Armey and former National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft, there has been surprisingly little dissent from leading policymakers, including congressional Democrats. This raises serious concerns, given that an invasion of Iraq constitutes such a dramatic shift in U.S. foreign policy and involves enormous political and military risks. It appears that war is inevitable unless there is a groundswell of popular opposition. This policy report attempts to encourage popular debate by raising a number of concerns that challenge some of the key rationales and assumptions behind such a military action.

1. A War Against Iraq Would Be Illegal

There is no legal justification for U.S. military action against Iraq.

Iraq is currently in violation of part of one section of UN Security Council Resolution 687 (and a series of subsequent resolutions reiterating that segment) requiring full cooperation with United Nations inspectors ensuring that Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction, delivery systems, and facilities for manufacturing such weapons are destroyed. The conflict regarding access for UN inspectors and possible Iraqi procurement of weapons of mass destruction has always been an issue involving the Iraqi government and the United Nations, not an impasse between Iraq and the United States. Although UN Security Council Resolution 687 was the most detailed in the world body’s history, no military enforcement mechanisms were specified. Nor did the Security Council specify any military enforcement mechanisms in subsequent resolutions. As is normally the case when it is determined that governments violate all or part of UN resolutions, any decision about the enforcement of its resolutions is a matter for the UN Security Council as a whole—not for any one member of the council.

The most explicit warning to Iraq regarding its noncompliance came in UN Security Council Resolution 1154. Although this resolution warned Iraq of the “severest consequences” if it continued its refusal to comply, the Security Council declared that it alone had the authority to “ensure implementation of this resolution and peace and security in the area.”

According to articles 41 and 42 of the United Nations Charter, no member state has the right to enforce any resolution militarily unless the UN Security Council determines that there has been a material breach of its resolution, decides that all nonmilitary means of enforcement have been exhausted, and then specifically authorizes the use of military force. This is what the Security Council did in November 1990 with Resolution 678 in response to Iraq’s ongoing occupation of Kuwait in violation of a series of resolutions passed that August. The UN has not done so for any subsequent violations involving Iraq or any other government.

If the United States can unilaterally claim the right to invade Iraq due to that country’s violation of UN Security Council resolutions, other Security Council members could logically also claim the right to invade other member states that are in violation of UN Security Council resolutions. For example, Russia could claim the right to invade Israel, France could claim the right to invade Turkey, and Great Britain could claim the right to invade Morocco, simply because those targeted governments are also violating UN Security Council resolutions. The U.S. insistence on the right to attack unilaterally could seriously undermine the principle of collective security and the authority of the United Nations and in doing so would open the door to international anarchy.

International law is quite clear about when military force is allowed. In addition to the aforementioned case of UN Security Council authorization, the only other time that any member state is allowed to use armed force is described in Article 51, which states that it is permissible for “individual or collective self-defense” against “armed attack … until the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to maintain international peace and security.” If Iraq’s neighbors were attacked or feared an imminent attack from Iraq, any of these countries could call on the United States to help, pending a Security Council decision authorizing the use of force. But they have not appealed to the Security Council, because they have not felt threatened by Iraq.

Based on evidence that the Bush administration has made public, there does not appear to be anything close to sufficient legal grounds for the United States to convince the Security Council to approve the use of military force against Iraq in U.S. self-defense. This may explain why the Bush administration has thus far refused to go before the United Nations on this matter. Unless the United States gets such authorization, any such attack on Iraq would be illegal and would be viewed by most members of the international community as an act of aggression. In contrast to the Persian Gulf War of 1990-91, it is likely that the world community would view the United States—not Iraq—as the international outlaw.

There is little debate regarding the nefarious nature of the Iraqi regime, but this has never been a legal ground for invasion. When Vietnam invaded Cambodia in 1978 to overthrow the Khmer Rouge—a radical communist movement even more brutal than the regime of Saddam Hussein—the United States condemned the action before the United Nations as an act of aggression and a violation of international law. The United States successfully led an international effort to impose sanctions against Vietnam and insisted that the UN recognize the Khmer Rouge as the legitimate government of Cambodia for more than a decade after their leaders were forced out of the capital into remote jungle areas. Similarly, the United States challenged three of its closest allies—Great Britain, France, and Israel—before the United Nations in 1956 when they invaded Egypt in an attempt to overthrow the radical anti-Western regime of Gamal Abdul-Nasser. The Eisenhower administration insisted that international law and the UN Charter must be upheld by all nations regardless of their relations with the United States. It now appears that the leadership of both political parties is ready to reverse what was once a bipartisan consensus.

2. Regional Allies Widely Oppose a U.S. Attack

Although there was some serious opposition to the Gulf War in many parts of the Middle East and elsewhere, it did have the support of major segments of the international community, including several important Arab states. The Gulf War was widely viewed as an act of collective security in response to aggression by Iraq against its small neighbor. This would not be the case, however, in the event of a new war against Iraq. Instead, Washington’s proposed action would be seen as an unprovoked invasion. Unlike in 1991, when most of the region supported—and even contributed to—the U.S.-led war effort (or was at least neutral), Arab opposition is strong today. Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah has warned that the U.S. “should not strike Iraq, because such an attack would only raise animosity in the region against the United States.” When Vice President Dick Cheney visited the Middle East in March, every Arab leader made clear his opposition. At the Beirut summit of the Arab League at the end of March, the Arab nations unanimously endorsed a resolution opposing an attack against Iraq.

Even Kuwait has reconciled with Iraq. This past March, Iraq and Kuwait signed a document written by Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Sheik Sabah al Ahmed al Jabbar al Sabah in which Iraq, for the first time, formally consented to respect the sovereignty of Kuwait. Sabah declared that his country was 100% satisfied with the agreement, and Kuwait reiterated its opposition to a U.S. invasion of Iraq. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Abdullah called the pact a “very positive achievement” and expressed confidence that Iraq would uphold the agreement.

U.S. officials claim that, public statements to the contrary, there may be some regional allies willing to support a U.S. war effort. Given President Bush’s ultimatum that “you are either with us or the terrorists,” it is quite possible that some governments might be successfully pressured to go along. However, almost any Middle Eastern government willing to provide such support and cooperation would be doing so over the opposition of the vast majority of its citizens. Given the real political risks for such a ruler in supporting the U.S. war effort, such acquiescence would take place only reluctantly as a result of American pressure or inducements, not from a sincere belief in the validity of the U.S. military operation.

In the event of a U.S. invasion of Iraq, there would likely be an outbreak of widespread anti-American protests, perhaps even attacks against American interests. Some pro-Western regimes could become vulnerable to internal radical forces as part of such a reaction. Passions are particularly high in light of strong U.S. support for the policies of Israel’s rightist government and its ongoing occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The anger over U.S. double standards regarding Israeli and Iraqi violations of UN Security Council resolutions could reach a boiling point.

3. There Is No Evidence of Iraqi Links to Al Qaeda or Other Anti-American Terrorists

In the months following the September 11 terrorist attacks, there were leaks to the media about alleged evidence of a meeting in Prague between an Iraqi intelligence officer and one of the hijackers of the doomed airplanes that crashed into the World Trade Center. Subsequent thorough investigations by the FBI, CIA, and Czech intelligence have found no evidence that any such meeting took place. None of the hijackers were Iraqi, no major figure in Al Qaeda is Iraqi, and no funds to Al Qaeda have been traced to Iraq. It is unlikely that the decidedly secular Baathist regime—which has savagely suppressed Islamists within Iraq—would be able to maintain close links with Osama bin Laden and his followers. In fact, Saudi Prince Turki bin Faisal, his country’s former intelligence chief, noted that bin Laden views Saddam Hussein “as an apostate, an infidel, or someone who is not worthy of being a fellow Muslim” and that bin Laden had offered in 1990 to raise an army of thousands of mujaheddin fighters to liberate Kuwait from Iraqi occupation.

Iraq’s past terrorist links have primarily been limited to such secular groups as Abu Nidal, a now-largely defunct Palestinian faction opposed to Yasir Arafat’s Palestine Liberation Organization. At the height of Iraq’s support of Abu Nidal in the early 1980s, Washington dropped Iraq from its list of countries that sponsored terrorism so the U.S. could bolster Iraq’s war effort against Iran. Baghdad was reinstated to the list only after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990, even though U.S. officials were unable to cite any increased Iraqi ties to terrorist groups. Abu Nidal himself was apparently murdered by the Iraqis in his Baghdad apartment recently, perhaps as an effort to deny the Bush administration an excuse to attack. A recent CIA report indicates that the Iraqis have actually been consciously avoiding any actions against the United States or its facilities abroad, presumably to deny Washington any excuse to engage in further military strikes against their country. The last clear example that American officials can cite of such Iraqi-backed terrorism was an alleged plot by Iraqi agents to assassinate former President George Bush when he visited Kuwait in 1993. In response, President Bill Clinton ordered the bombing of Baghdad, hitting an Iraqi intelligence headquarters as well as a nearby civilian neighborhood.

Although Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld insists that Iraq is backing international terrorism, he has been unable to present any evidence that they currently do so. In fact, the State Department’s own annual study Patterns of Global Terrorism did not list any serious act of international terrorism by the government of Iraq.

Besides, an American invasion of Iraq would probably weaken the battle against terrorism. It would not only distract from the more immediate threat posed by Osama bin Laden’s Al Qaeda network, but it would also likely result in an anti-American backlash that would lessen the level of cooperation from Islamic countries in tracking down and neutralizing the remaining Al Qaeda cells.

4. There Is No Firm Proof that Iraq Is Developing Weapons of Mass Destruction

Despite speculation—particularly by those who seek an excuse to invade Iraq—of possible ongoing Iraqi efforts to procure weapons of mass destruction, no one has been able to put forward evidence that the Iraqis are actually doing so, though they have certainly done so in the past. The dilemma facing the international community is that no one knows what, if anything, the Iraqis are currently doing.

In the aftermath of the 1991 Gulf War and the subsequent inspections regimen, virtually all Iraq’s stockpile of weapons of mass destruction, delivery systems, and capability of producing such weapons were destroyed. Inspectors with the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) were withdrawn from Iraq in late 1998 before their job was complete, however, under orders by President Clinton prior to a heavy four-day U.S. bombing campaign. The Iraqi government has not yet allowed them to return. Prior to that time, UNSCOM reportedly oversaw the destruction of 38,000 chemical weapons, 480,000 liters of live chemical weapons agents, 48 missiles, six missile launchers, 30 missile warheads modified to carry chemical or biological agents, and hundreds of pieces of related equipment with the capability to produce chemical weapons.

In its most recent report, the International Atomic Energy Agency categorically declared that Iraq no longer has a nuclear program.

In late 1997, UNSCOM Director Richard Butler reported that UNSCOM had made “significant progress” in tracking Iraq’s chemical weapons program and that 817 of the 819 Soviet-supplied long-range missiles had been accounted for. A couple dozen Iraqi-made ballistic missiles remained unaccounted for, but these were of questionable caliber. Though Iraqi officials would periodically interfere with inspections, in its last three years of operation, UNSCOM was unable to detect any evidence that Iraq had been further concealing prohibited weapons.

The development of biological weapons, by contrast, is much easier to conceal, due to the small amount of space needed for their manufacture. Early UNSCOM inspections revealed evidence of the production of large amounts of biological agents, including anthrax, and charged that Iraq had vastly understated the amount of biological warfare agents it had manufactured. In response, UNSCOM set up sophisticated monitoring devices to detect chemical or biological weapons, though these devices were dismantled in reaction to the U.S. bombing campaign of December 1998.

Frightening scenarios regarding mass fatalities from a small amount of anthrax assume that the Iraqis have developed the highly sophisticated means of distributing these bioweapons by missile or aircraft. However, there are serious questions as to whether the alleged biological agents could be dispersed successfully in a manner that could harm troops or a civilian population, given the rather complicated technology required. For example, a vial of biological weapons on the tip of a missile would almost certainly either be destroyed on impact or dispersed harmlessly. To become lethal, highly concentrated amounts of anthrax spores must be inhaled and then left untreated by antibiotics until the infection is too far advanced. Similarly, the prevailing winds would have to be calculated, no rain could fall, the spray nozzles could not clog, the population would need to be unvaccinated, and everyone would need to stay around the area targeted for attack.

Although Iraq’s potential for developing weapons of mass destruction should not be totally discounted, Saddam Hussein’s refusal to allow UN inspectors to return and his lack of full cooperation prior to their departure do not necessarily mean he is hiding something, as President Bush alleges. More likely, the Iraqi opposition to the inspections program is based on Washington’s abuse of UNSCOM for intelligence gathering operations and represents a desperate effort by Saddam Hussein to increase his standing with Arab nationalists by defying Western efforts to intrude on Iraqi sovereignty. Indeed, the Iraqi defiance of the inspections regime may be designed to provoke a reaction by the United States in order to capitalize on widespread Arab resentment over Washington’s double standard of objecting to an Arab country procuring weapons of mass destruction while tolerating Israel’s nuclear arsenal.

A far more likely scenario for an Iraqi distribution of biological agents would be through Iraqi agents smuggling them clandestinely into targeted countries. This is what led to some initial speculation, now considered very doubtful, that the Iraqis were behind the anthrax mail attacks during the fall of 2001. To prevent such a scenario requires aggressive counterintelligence efforts by the United States and other potentially targeted nations, but this type of terrorism is not likely to be prevented by an invasion. Indeed, a U.S. invasion could conceivably encourage rogue elements of Iraqi intelligence or an allied terrorist group to engage in an anthrax attack as an act of revenge for the heavy Arab casualties resulting from U.S. bombing. One of the frightening things about biological weapons production is the mobility of operations. A “regime change” engineered by the U.S. would not necessarily ensure the closure of labs producing such weapons, since they could easily be relocated elsewhere or even continue to operate clandestinely in Iraq.

U.S. officials have admitted that there is no evidence that Iraq has resumed its nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons programs. Scott Ritter, a former U.S. Marine officer who served as chief weapons inspector for UNSCOM, responded to a query on a television talk show in 2001 about Iraq’s potential threat to the U.S. by saying:

In terms of military threat, absolutely nothing. His military was devastated in 1991 in Operation Desert Storm and hasn’t had the ability to reconstitute itself … In terms of weapons of mass destruction, … we just don’t know. We know that we achieved a 90 to 95% level of disarmament. There’s stuff that’s unresolved, and until we get weapons inspectors back into Iraq, that will remain a problematic issue …. We should be trying to get weapons inspectors back into Iraq, so that we can ascertain exactly what’s transpiring in Iraq today instead of guessing about it.

Finally, Saddam Hussein has demonstrated that he cares first and foremost about his own survival. He presumably recognizes that any effort to use weapons of mass destruction would inevitably lead to his own destruction. This is why he did not use them during the Gulf War. In the event of a U.S. invasion, seeing his overthrow as imminent, and with nothing to lose, this logic of self-preservation would no longer be operative. Instead, such an invasion would dramatically increase the likelihood of his ordering the use of any weapons of mass destruction he may have retained.

Saddam Hussein’s leadership style has always been that of direct control; his distrust of subordinates (bordering on paranoia) is one of the things that has helped him survive. It is extremely unlikely that he would go to the risk and expense of developing weapons of mass destruction only to pass them on to some group of terrorists. If he does have such weapons at his disposal, they would be for him and nobody else. In the chaos of a U.S. invasion and its aftermath, however, the chances of such weapons being smuggled out of the country into the hands of terrorists would increase. Currently these weapons, if they do exist, are under the control of a highly centralized government unlikely to provoke an attack by passing on the weapons to terrorist groups.

5. Iraq Is No Longer a Significant Military Threat to Its Neighbors

It is also hard to imagine that an Iraqi aircraft carrying biological weapons, presumably some kind of drone, could somehow penetrate the air space of neighboring countries, much less far-off Israel, without being shot down. Most of Iraq’s neighbors have sophisticated antiaircraft capability, and Israel has the best regional missile defense system in the world. Similarly, as mentioned above, there is no evidence that Iraq’s Scud missiles and launchers even survived the Gulf War in operable condition. Indeed, UNSCOM reported in 1992 that Iraq had neither launchers for their missiles nor engines to power them.

Israeli military analyst Meir Stieglitz, writing in the Israeli newspaper Yediot Ahronot, noted that “there is no such thing as a long-range Iraqi missile with an effective biological warhead. No one has found an Iraqi biological warhead. The chances of Iraq having succeeded in developing operative warheads without tests are zero.”

The recent American obsession with Iraq’s potential military threat is discredited by the fact that Iraq’s military, including its real and potential weapons of mass destruction, was significantly stronger in the late 1980s than it is today. Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein was once a real threat to Iraq’s neighbors when he had his full complement of medium-range missiles, a functioning air force, and a massive stockpile of chemical and biological weaponry and material. Yet, from the Carter administration through the Reagan administration and continuing through the first half of the senior Bush administration, the U.S. dismissed any potential strategic Iraqi threat to the point of coddling Saddam’s regime with overt economic subsidies and covert military support. This support continued even as Iraq invaded Iran and used chemical weapons against Iranian soldiers and Kurdish civilians.

Iraq’s current armed forces are barely one-third their pre-war strength. Even though Iraq has not been required to reduce its conventional forces, the destruction of its weapons and the country’s economic difficulties have led to a substantial reduction in men under arms. Iraq’s Navy is virtually nonexistent and its Air Force is just a fraction of what it was before the war. Military spending by Iraq has been estimated at barely one-tenth of its levels in the 1980s. The Bush administration has been unable to explain why today, when Saddam has only a tiny percentage of his once-formidable military capability, Iraq is considered such a threat that it is necessary to invade the country and replace its leader—the same leader Washington quietly supported during the peak of Iraq’s military capability.

6. There Are Still Nonmilitary Options Available

The best way to stop the potential of Iraq developing weapons of mass destruction would be through resuming United Nations inspections, which—despite episodes of Iraqi noncooperation and harassment—were largely successful. It was Washington’s ill-considered decision to misuse the inspection teams for unrelated spying operations and the decision to engage in an intense four-day bombing campaign against Iraq that led Saddam Hussein to cease his cooperation completely in December 1998.

Since then, the United States has not offered any incentives for Iraq to allow inspections to resume. From the outset, Washington made it clear that even total cooperation with UNSCOM would not lead to an end to the devastating international sanctions against Iraq. As a result, Saddam Hussein may be refusing to allow UN inspectors to return not because he has something to hide but because he has nothing to gain by cooperating. Offering an end to or a substantial liberalization of nonmilitary sanctions in return for unfettered access by UN inspection teams would probably be the best way to regain access for the inspectors.

Unfortunately, Bush administration officials are apparently no longer even interested in renewing UN inspections, dismissing out of hand Iraq’s recently announced willingness to consider their return. This raises questions as to whether the potential Iraqi possession of weapons of mass destruction is really a genuine concern of American officials or merely an excuse to go to war.

A number of observers, including Scott Ritter—who had criticized the Clinton administration for not pushing the Iraqi regime harder on its initial refusals to allow inspections into some of the government’s inner sanctums—believe that the Bush administration is sabotaging United Nations efforts to reopen inspections. For example, Ritter told the Los Angeles Times that the recent decision to engage in covert operations to assassinate Saddam Hussein and other Iraqi leaders “effectively kills any chance of inspectors returning to Iraq” because “the Iraqis will never trust an inspection regime that has already shown itself susceptible to infiltration and manipulation by intelligence services hostile to Iraq.”

There is also no reason why the current emphasis on deterrence will not continue to work. Iraq was able to build up its initial raw components, equipment, and technologies for the development of biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons through imports, much of which came from the United States. The vast majority of these items and infrastructure has since been destroyed. Although the economic sanctions have been quite controversial as a result of their devastating effects on Iraqi civilians (and are therefore frequently violated), international support for and enforcement of the military sanctions have remained quite solid.

Furthermore, even without a resumption of inspections, relying on existing satellite surveillance—which ensures that Iraq cannot build any large weapons plants without detection and presumably destruction, immediately afterwards—seems far less risky than an all-out war.

Finally, given that UN Security Council Resolution 687 also calls for disarmament initiatives throughout the region, the United States could help curb Iraq’s appetite for weapons procurement by reversing its opposition to arms control initiatives for the entire Persian Gulf region.

7. Defeating Iraq Would Be Militarily Difficult

Most likely, the United States would eventually be victorious in a war against Iraq, but it would come at an enormous cost. It would be a mistake, for example, to think that defeating Iraq would result in as few Americans casualties as occurred in driving the Taliban militia from Kabul. Though Iraq’s offensive capabilities have been severely weakened by the bombings, sanctions, and UNSCOM-sponsored decommissioning, its defensive military capabilities are still strong.

Nor would a military victory today be as easy as during the Gulf War. Prior to the launching of Operation Desert Storm, when the Iraqis figured out the extent of the forces being deployed against them, they decided not to put up a fight for Kuwait and relied mostly on young conscripts from minority communities. Only two of the eight divisions of the elite Republican Guard were ever in Kuwait, and they pulled back before the war began in mid-January. The vast majority of Iraq’s strongest forces were withdrawn to areas around Baghdad to fight for the survival of the regime itself, and they remain there to this day. In the event of war, defections from these units are not likely.

There are close to one million members of the Iraqi elite who have a vested interest in the regime’s survival. These include the Baath Party leadership and its supporters, security and intelligence personnel, and core elements of the armed forces and their extended families. Furthermore, Iraq—a largely urban society—has a far more sophisticated infrastructure than does the largely rural and tribal Afghanistan that could be mobilized in the event of a foreign invasion.

Nor is there an equivalent to Afghanistan’s Northern Alliance, which did the bulk of the ground fighting against the Taliban. The Kurds, after being abandoned twice in recent history by the United States, are unlikely to fight beyond securing autonomy for Kurdish areas. The armed Shiite opposition has largely been eliminated, and it too would be unlikely to fight beyond liberating the majority Shiite sections of southern Iraq. The U.S. would be reluctant to support either, given that their successes could potentially fragment the country and would encourage both rebellious Kurds in southeastern Turkey and restive Shiites in northeastern Saudi Arabia. U.S. forces would have to march on Baghdad, a city of over five million people, virtually alone. Unlike the Gulf War, which involved conventional and open combat where U.S. forces could excel and take full advantage of their firepower and technological superiority, U.S. soldiers would have to fight their way through heavily populated agricultural and urban lands. Invading forces would be faced with bitter, house-to-house fighting in a country larger than South Vietnam. Iraqis, who may have had little stomach to fight to maintain their country’s conquest of Kuwait, would be far more willing to sacrifice themselves to resist a foreign, Western invader. To minimize American casualties in the face of such stiff resistance, which would largely come from within crowded urban areas, the United States would likely engage in heavy bombing of Iraqi residential neighborhoods, resulting in very high civilian casualties.

The lack of support from regional allies could result in an absence of a land base from which to launch U.S. aerial attacks, initially requiring the United States to rely on Navy jets launched from aircraft carriers. Without permission to launch aerial refueling craft, even long-range bombers from U.S. air bases might not be able to be deployed. It is hard to imagine being able to provide the necessary reconnaissance and surveillance aircraft under such circumstances, and the deployment of tens of thousands of troops from distant staging areas could be problematic as well. U.S. forces could conceivably capture an air base inside Iraq in the course of the fighting, but without the pre-positioning of supplies, its usefulness as a major center of operations would be marginal.

Finally, there is the question of what happens if the United States is successful in overthrowing Saddam Hussein’s regime. As is becoming apparent in Afghanistan, throwing a government out is easier than putting a new one together. Although most Iraqis presumably fear and despise Saddam Hussein’s rule and would likely be relieved in the event of his ouster, this does not mean that a regime installed by an invading Western army would be welcomed. For example, most of the leading candidates that U.S. officials are apparently considering installing to govern Iraq are former Iraqi military officers who have been linked to war crimes.

In addition to possible ongoing guerrilla action by Saddam Hussein’s supporters, U.S. occupation forces would likely be faced with competing armed factions among the Sunni Arab population, not to mention Kurd and Shiite rebel groups seeking to break away from any ruler in Baghdad. This could lead the United States into a bloody counterinsurgency war. Without the support of other countries or the United Nations, a U.S. invasion could leave American forces effectively alone enforcing a peace amidst the chaos of a post-Saddam Iraq.

Conclusion

The serious moral, legal, political, and strategic problems with a possible U.S. invasion of Iraq require that the American public become engaged in the debate over the wisdom of such a dramatic course of action. What is at stake is not just the lives of thousands of Iraqi and American soldiers and thousands more Iraqi civilians but also the international legal framework established in the aftermath of World War II. Despite its failings, this multilateral framework of collective security has resulted in far greater international stability and far less intergovernmental conflict than would otherwise have been the case.

During the 2000 election campaign, George W. Bush scored well among voters by calling for greater “humility” in U.S. foreign policy, decrying the overextension of U.S. military force, and criticizing the idea that the U.S. armed forces should be engaged in such practices as “nation-building” in unstable areas. As president, Bush has made a remarkable reversal of this popular position and appears eager to embark on perhaps the most reckless foreign military campaign in U.S. history. Taking advantage of the fear, anger, and sense of nationalism felt by so many Americans in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks, the Bush administration and its allies in Congress and the media are now seeking to justify an unrelated military campaign that would have otherwise been unimaginable.

The most effective antidote to such arrogance of power is democracy. Unfortunately, in times of international crisis, many Americans are wary of exercising their democratic rights and are reluctant to oppose a president’s foreign policy. Yet, seldom in U.S. history has it been so important for Americans to raise their concerns publicly and challenge their elected representatives to honor their legal and moral obligations.

http://www.fpif.org/articles/seven_reasons_to_oppose_a_us_invasion_of_iraq

Fallacies of U.S. Plans to Invade Iraq

There is no evidence of Iraqi links to Al Qaeda

In the months following the September 11 terrorist attacks, there were leaks to the media about alleged evidence of a meeting in Prague between an Iraqi intelligence officer and one of the hijackers of the doomed airplanes that crashed into the World Trade Center. Subsequently, however, both the FBI and CIA have declared that no such meeting occurred. It is unlikely that the decidedly secular Baathist regime–which has savagely suppressed Islamists within Iraq–would be able to maintain close links with Bin Laden and his followers. Saudi Prince Turki bin Faisal, his country’s former intelligence chief, noted how Bin Laden views Saddam Hussein “as an apostate, an infidel or someone who is not worthy of being a fellow Muslim.” Much of the money trail for Al Qaeda comes from U.S. ally Saudi Arabia; none has been traced to Iraq. Fifteen of the nineteen hijackers were Saudi; none were Iraqi. Admitting that there was no evidence of direct links between Iraq and Al Qaeda, the best that CIA Director George Tenet could come up with in testimony before Congress was that the “mutual antipathy” the two have for the U.S. “suggests that tactical cooperation between the two is possible.” Most observers consider this to be an extraordinarily weak justification for war.

Iraq’s past terrorist links have primarily been limited to such secular groups as Abu Nidal, a now largely defunct Palestinian group. At the height of Iraq’s support of Abu Nidal in the early 1980s, the U.S. dropped Iraq from its list of countries that supported terrorism in order to support Iraq’s war effort against Iran. (Baghdad was reinstated only after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, despite a lack of evidence of increased ties to terrorism.) A recent CIA report indicates that the Iraqis have actually been consciously avoiding any actions against the U.S. or its facilities abroad.

The military threat from Iraq is greatly exaggerated

The American obsession with Iraq’s potential threat to the Middle East region during the past decade is weakened by the fact that Iraq’s military, including its real and potential weapons of mass destruction, was significantly stronger in the late 1980s than it is today. Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein was once a real threat when he had his full complement of medium-range missiles, a functioning air force, and a massive stockpile of chemical and biological weaponry and material. Yet, from the Carter administration through the Reagan administration through the first half of the senior Bush administration, the U.S. dismissed any potential strategic Iraqi threat to the point of coddling Saddam’s regime with overt economic subsidies and covert military support.

Today, in the aftermath of the 1991 Gulf War and the subsequent inspections regime, virtually any aggressive military potential by Iraq has been destroyed. Before the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) was withdrawn, its agents reportedly oversaw the destruction of 38,000 chemical weapons, 480,000 liters of live chemical weapons agents, 48 missiles, six missile launchers, 30 missile warheads modified to carry chemical or biological agents, and hundreds of pieces of related equipment with the capability to produce chemical weapons. In late 1997, UNSCOM Director Richard Butler reported that UNSCOM had made “significant progress” in tracking Iraq’s chemical weapons program and that 817 of the 819 Soviet-supplied long-range missiles had been accounted for. There were also believed to be a couple dozen Iraqi-made ballistic missiles unaccounted for, but these were of questionable caliber.

Iraq’s current armed forces are barely one-third their pre-war strength. Even though Iraq has not been required to reduce its conventional forces, the destruction of its weapons and the country’s economic difficulties have led to a substantial reduction in men under arms. The Navy is virtually nonexistent, and the Air Force is just a fraction of what it was before the war. Military spending by Iraq is barely one-tenth of its levels in the 1980s. Why then, beginning in late 1997, when Iraq had only a tiny percentage of its once-formidable military capability, did the U.S. suddenly begin to portray Iraq as an intolerable threat? It is no surprise, under these circumstances, that so many Americans, rightly or wrongly, suspected President Clinton of manufacturing the crisis to distract the American public from the sex scandal surrounding his office. Indeed, the December 1998 bombing began on the very day of his scheduled impeachment by the House of Representatives, which, in response, postponed the vote.

Though in the past Iraq certainly produced both chemical and biological agents, the U.S. has never been able to present any credible evidence that Iraq currently has biological weapons or other weapons of mass destruction. Early UNSCOM inspections revealed evidence of the production of large amounts of biological agents, including anthrax, and charged that Iraq had vastly understated the amount of biological warfare agents it had manufactured. In response, UNSCOM set up sophisticated monitoring devices to detect chemical or biological weapons, though these were dismantled after the bombing raids of December 1998. Even in the unlikely event that Iraq was able and willing to engage in the mass production or deployment of nuclear or chemical weapons, these weapons would almost certainly be detected by satellite and air reconnaissance and destroyed in air strikes. Iraq continues to allow inspections of its nuclear facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency, which has reported that there is no evidence of renewed nuclear weapons development.

The development of biological weapons, by contrast, is much easier to conceal due to the small amount of space needed for their manufacture. However, there are serious questions as to whether the alleged biological agents could be dispersed successfully in a manner that could harm troops or a civilian population, given the rather complicated technology required. For example, a vial of biological weapons on the tip of a missile would almost certainly be destroyed on impact or dispersed harmlessly. Frightening scenarios regarding mass fatalities from a small amount of anthrax assume that the Iraqis have developed the highly sophisticated means of distributing these bioweapons by missile or aircraft. To become a lethal weapon, highly concentrated amounts of anthrax spores must be inhaled and then left untreated by antibiotics until the infection is too far advanced. Similarly, the winds would have to be just right, no rain could fall, the spray nozzles could not clog, the population would need to be unvaccinated, and everyone would need to stay around the area targeted for attack. This is why unknown terrorists sent spores through the mail to indoor destinations in the eastern U.S. during the fall of 2001. Even this relatively efficient means of distribution resulted in only a handful of deaths.

It is also hard to imagine that an Iraqi aircraft, presumably some kind of drone, could somehow penetrate the air space of neighboring countries, much less far-off Israel, without being shot down. Most of Iraq’s neighbors have sophisticated antiaircraft capability, and Israel has the most sophisticated regional missile defense system in the world. Similarly, as mentioned above, there is no evidence that Iraq’s Scud missiles and launchers even survived the Gulf War. Indeed, UNSCOM reported in 1992 that Iraq had neither launchers for their missiles nor engines to power them. As British scientist Julian Robinson put it: “To say they [UNSCOM] have found enough weapons to kill the world several times over is equivalent to the statement that a man who produces a million sperm a day can thus produce a million babies a day. The problem in both cases is one of delivery systems.”

Israeli military analyst Meir Stieglitz, writing in the Israeli newspaper Yediot Ahronot, noted that “there is no such thing as a long-range Iraqi missile with an effective biological warhead. No one has found an Iraqi biological warhead. The chances of Iraq having succeeded in developing operative warheads without tests are zero.”

Although Iraq’s potential for developing weapons of mass destruction should not be totally discounted, Saddam’s lack of full cooperation with the inspections regime prior to the December 1998 bombings–and his subsequent outright refusal to cooperate at all–was more likely a desperate power play by a weakened tyrant than an indication that Iraq was hiding anything potentially threatening to its neighbors. UNSCOM has been unable to surface any evidence that Iraq has been concealing prohibited weapons since October 1995. Saddam’s goal, more likely, was to provoke a reaction by the U.S. in order to capitalize on widespread Arab resentment over Washington’s double-standard obsession with the possibility of Arab countries procuring weapons of mass destruction while tolerating Israel’s nuclear arsenal.

A far more likely scenario for an Iraqi distribution of biological agents would be through terrorists smuggling them clandestinely into targeted countries. This is what led to some initial speculation, now considered very doubtful, that the Iraqis were behind the anthrax mail attacks during the fall of 2001. To prevent such a scenario requires aggressive counterintelligence efforts by the U.S. and other potentially targeted nations, but this type of terrorism is not likely to be prevented by a bombing campaign. Indeed, the ongoing sanctions regime and military strikes are more likely to encourage rogue elements of Iraqi intelligence or an allied terrorist group to engage in such an attack as an act of revenge for the heavy Arab casualties resulting from Washington’s policies.

Part of the problem is that the U.S. has not offered any incentive for Iraq to allow inspections to resume. From the outset, Washington made it clear that even total cooperation with UNSCOM would not lead to an end to the sanctions. The senior President Bush’s National Security Advisor Robert Gates stated: “Iraqis will be made to pay the price while Saddam Hussein is in power. Any easing of sanctions will be considered only when there is a new government.” Similarly, Secretary of State Albright noted: “We do not agree with those nations who argue that if Iraq complies with its obligations concerning weapons of mass destruction, sanctions should be lifted.” President Clinton, in reference to Saddam Hussein’s continued rule, declared, “Sanctions will be there until the end of time, or as long as he [Hussein] lasts.” While testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in March 2002, Secretary of State Colin Powell said that if Iraq let weapons inspectors back in, he could only say that the U.S. “may look at lifting sanctions.” Even without a resumption of inspections, relying on existing systems of air patrols and satellite surveillance–which ensure that Iraq cannot build any large weapons plants without them being detected and presumably destroyed–seems far less risky than an all-out war.

U.S. officials have admitted that there is no evidence that Iraq has resumed its chemical and biological weapons programs. Scott Ritter, a former U.S. Marine officer who had criticized the Clinton administration’s alleged lack of resolve in pushing Iraq to open up its inner sanctums, responded to a query on a television talk show in 2001 about Iraq’s potential threat to the U.S. by saying:

“In terms of military threat, absolutely nothing. His military was devastated in 1991 in Operation Desert Storm and hasn’t had the ability to reconstitute itself … In terms of weapons of mass destruction, … we just don’t know. We know that we achieve a 90% to 95% level of disarmament. There’s stuff that’s unresolved, and until we get weapons inspectors back into Iraq, that will remain a problematic issue …. Diplomatically, politically, Saddam’s a little bit of a threat. In terms of a real national security threat to the United States, no, none. … We should be trying to get weapons inspectors back into Iraq, so that we can ascertain exactly what’s transpiring in Iraq today instead of guessing about it.”

A war against Iraq would be illegal

The conflict regarding access for UN inspectors and Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction has always been between the Iraqi government and the United Nations, not between Iraq and the United States. Though UN Security Council Resolution 687 (the resolution passed in March 1991 which specified Iraq’s disarmament requirements) was the most detailed in the world body’s history, no enforcement mechanisms were specified. Enforcement is a matter for the UN Security Council as a whole, a normal procedure when governments violate all or part of such resolutions. According to articles 41 and 42 of the United Nations Charter, no member state has the right to enforce any resolution militarily unless the UN Security Council determines that there has been a material breach of its resolution, decides that all nonmilitary means of enforcement have been exhausted, and then specifically authorizes the use of military force. This is what the Security Council did in November 1990 with Resolution 678 in response to Iraq’s ongoing occupation of Kuwait, but every U.S. attack against Iraq since Iraq’s withdrawal from Kuwait has been illegal. Indeed, these attacks create a very dangerous precedent. Following the U.S. example, Russia could claim the right to attack Israel, France could claim the right to attack Turkey, and Great Britain could claim the right to attack Morocco, simply because those governments, like Iraq, are in violation of UN Security Council resolutions. The U.S. insistence on the right to attack unilaterally has effectively undermined the principle of collective security and the authority of the United Nations and could encourage international anarchy.

International law is quite clear about when military force is allowed. In addition to the aforementioned case of UN Security Council authorization, the only other time that any member state is allowed to use armed force is described in Article 51, which states that it is permissible for “individual or collective self-defense” against “armed attack. … until the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to maintain international peace and security.” If Iraq’s neighbors or the U.S. had felt threatened by Saddam Hussein’s armed forces, any of these countries could have approached the Security Council and made their case as to why their security was threatened. Iraq’s neighbors have not done so subsequent to 1991, apparently because they have not felt threatened. The U.S. has not done so, because such a claim would be seen as ludicrous and, as a result, would have virtually no support in the Security Council.

Defeating Iraq would be militarily difficult

The U.S. would be mistaken to think that defeating Iraq would be as easy as routing the ragtag band of tribesman that constituted the Taliban. Though Iraq’s offensive capabilities have been severely weakened by the bombings, sanctions, and UNSCOM-sponsored decommissioning, its defensive military capabilities are still strong.

A military victory today would not be as easy as during the Gulf War, either. Prior to the launching of Operation Desert Storm, when the Iraqis figured out the extent of the forces being deployed against them, they decided not to put up a fight for Kuwait and relied mostly on young conscripts from minority communities, many of whom were literally chained to their positions. Only two of the eight divisions of the elite Republican Guard were ever in Kuwait, and they pulled back before the war began in mid-January. The vast majority of Iraq’s strongest forces were withdrawn to areas around Baghdad to fight for the survival of the regime itself. In the event of war, defections from these units are not likely. There are close to one million members of the Iraqi elite who have a vested interested in the regime’s survival. These include the Baath Party leadership and its supporters, security and intelligence personnel, and core elements of the armed forces and their extended families.

Nor is there an equivalent to Afghanistan’s Northern Alliance, which did the bulk of the ground fighting against the Taliban. The Kurds, after being abandoned twice by the U.S., are unlikely to fight beyond securing autonomy for Kurdish areas. The armed Shiite opposition has largely been eliminated, and it too would be unlikely to fight beyond liberating the majority Shiite sections of southern Iraq. The U.S. would be reluctant to support either, given that their success would fragment the country and would encourage both rebellious Kurds in southeastern Turkey and restive Shiites in northeastern Saudi Arabia. U.S. forces would have to march on Baghdad, a city of over five million people, virtually alone. Unlike the Gulf War, which was conventional and open combat, where U.S. forces could excel and take full advantage of their firepower and technological superiority, U.S. soldiers would have to fight their way through heavily populated agricultural and urban lands. Invading U.S. forces would be faced with bitter, house-to-house fighting in a country larger than South Vietnam. Iraqis, who may have had little stomach to fight to maintain their country’s conquest of Kuwait, would be far more willing to sacrifice themselves to resist a foreign Western invader.

The U.S. has virtually no support from regional allies

During the Gulf War, the U.S. was able to repel even greater criticism than it might have otherwise received, because it had the support of major segments of the international community, including several Arab states. This would not be the case, however, in the event of a new war against Iraq, which would not be seen as a response to an attack on the U.S. or an act of aggression against an ally. Instead, Washington’s actions would be seen as an unprovoked invasion. Unlike in 1991, when most of the region supported–and even contributed to–the U.S.-led war effort or were at least neutral, Arab opposition is strong today. Mustapha Alani, a Middle East specialist with the Royal United Services Institute in London noted that “This is a very sensitive issue for them. Liberating Kuwait is a legitimate objective, but toppling regimes is completely different.” Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah has warned that the U.S. “should not strike Iraq, because such an attack would only raise animosity in the region against the United States.” When Vice President Dick Cheney visited the Middle East in March, every Arab leader made clear his opposition. At the Beirut summit of the Arab League at the end of the month, the Arab nations unanimously endorsed a resolution opposing an attack against Iraq.

Even Kuwait has reconciled with Iraq. In March 2002, Iraq and Kuwait signed a document written by Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Sheik Sabah al Ahmed al Jabbar al Sabah in which Iraq, for the first time, formally consented to respect the sovereignty of Kuwait. Sabah declared that his country was 100% satisfied with the agreement, and Kuwait reiterated its opposition to a U.S. invasion of Iraq. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Abdullah called the pact a “very positive achievement” and expressed confidence that Iraq would uphold the agreement. However, rather than welcoming this breakthrough, State Department spokesman Richard Boucher declared that the U.S. was “profoundly skeptical” of the accord.

In the event of a U.S. invasion of Iraq, this lack of regional support would have more than just political implications. Without a land base from which to launch its aerial attacks, the U.S. would have to rely exclusively on Navy jets launched from aircraft carriers. Without permission to launch aerial refueling craft, even long-range bombers from U.S. air bases might not be able to be deployed. It is hard to imagine being able to provide the necessary reconnaissance and surveillance aircraft under such circumstances, and the deployment of tens of thousands of troops from distant staging areas could be problematic as well.

Finally, there is the question of what happens if the U.S. in successful in overthrowing Saddam Hussein’s regime. As is becoming apparent in Afghanistan, throwing a government out is easier than putting a new one together. America’s Arab allies have expressed concern that an Iraq without a strong central government could disintegrate into Shia Arab, Sunni Arab, and Kurdish ministates. As the European Union’s external affairs chief Chris Patten warned: “The Afghan war perhaps reinforced some dangerous instincts: that the projection of military power is the only basis of true security; that the U.S. can rely on no one but itself; and that allies may be useful as optional extras.”

http://www.fpif.info/fpiftxt/326

Why the U.S. Did Not Overthrow Saddam Hussein

There has been a curious bout of revisionist history in recent weeks criticizing the U.S. decision not to “finish the job” during the 1991 Gulf War and overthrow the Iraqi government of Saddam Hussein. With such a lopsided victory in the six-week military campaign, these right-wing critics argue the U.S. could have easily marched into the capital of Baghdad and ousted the dictator.

However, the decisive military victory–which came with relatively few American casualties–resulted in large part because Iraqi forces were concentrated in flat, open desert. This was conventional and open combat, where U.S. forces could excel and take full advantage of their firepower and technological superiority. Had U.S. forces moved north toward Baghdad, however, they would have had to march through more than 200 miles of heavily populated agricultural and urban lands. Baghdad itself is a city of more than five million.

Invading U.S. forces would have been faced with bitter, house-to-house fighting in a country larger than South Vietnam. Iraqis who may have had little stomach to fight to maintain their country’s conquest of Kuwait would have been far more willing to sacrifice themselves to resist a foreign Western invader.

The UN Security Council had authorized member states to use military power to enforce its resolutions demanding an Iraqi withdrawal from occupied Kuwait. There was no authorization to invade Iraq. The U.S., by basic tenets of international law and in the eyes of international community, would have become the aggressor.

The broad coalition of nations so assiduously put together by President George Bush would have fallen apart. Indeed, press reports and my own interviews with foreign ministers and other government officials of the Arab Gulf monarchies following the war indicated absolutely no support for carrying the war any further. Indeed, there was already a strong sense that the U.S. had inflicted unnecessary damage on Iraq’s civilian infrastructure with serious humanitarian consequences, going well beyond what was necessary to rid Iraqi forces from Kuwait.

Even Washington’s European, Canadian, and Australian allies were adamantly opposed to extending the war to Baghdad. The U.S. would have had to do it alone.

If an occupying U.S. army had succeeded in overthrowing Saddam Hussein, then what? Would a government installed by an invading Western power that had just ravaged the country with the heaviest bombing in world history have any credibility with the Iraqi people? American occupation troops would have been subjected to constant hit-and-run guerrilla attacks from Baghdad’s narrow alleyways, forcing the U.S. into a bloody counterinsurgency war. At best, the U.S. would have had to lead an extensive effort at the kind of “nation-building” that Bush’s son and other Republican leaders have repeatedly denounced in recent years.

Even putting the logistics aside, there is little evidence that the U.S. even wanted Saddam Hussein overthrown. When Kurds in the north and Shiites in the south of the Iraq rebelled in the aftermath of the Gulf War and threatened Saddam Hussein’s regime, the U.S. decided to ban only the use of fixed-wing aircraft by the Iraqi air force, which could have threatened U.S. troops. However, by allowing Saddam’s helicopter gunships to operate unimpeded, the rebels were crushed.

The Bush administration feared that a victory by Iraqi Kurds might encourage the ongoing Kurdish uprising in Turkey, a NATO ally. They also feared what a radical Shiite Arab entity would mean to U.S. Gulf allies with restive Shiite populations.

Keeping Saddam Hussein in power while subjecting his country to debilitating sanctions and sending in international inspectors to destroy his offensive military capabilities seemed at the time like the preferred alternative.

There are many valid critiques of U.S. policy toward Iraq before, during, and after the Gulf War. Failing to invade and overthrow the Iraqi government, however, is not one of them.

http://www.fpif.org/articles/why_the_us_did_not_overthrow_saddam_hussein

U.S. Policy Toward Political Islam

[Alternet.org, September 12, 2001; Download PDF] The perceived growth of radical Islamic movements throughout the Middle East and beyond has not only caused major political upheaval in the countries directly affected but has placed political Islam at the forefront of concerns voiced by U.S. policymakers. One unfortunate aspect of this newfound attention has been the way it has strengthened ugly stereotypes of Muslims already prevalent in the West. This occurs despite the existence of moderate Islamic segments and secular movements that are at least as influential as radicals in the political life of Islamic countries. Even though the vast majority of the world’s Muslims oppose terrorism, religious intolerance, and the oppression of women, these remain the most prevalent images of the Muslim faith throughout the Western world. Such popular misconceptions about Islam and Islamic movements—often exacerbated by the media, popular culture, and government officials—have made it particularly difficult to challenge U.S. policy.

The Failure of U.S. Policy Toward Iraq and Proposed Alternatives

Current U.S.-UN policy regarding Iraq has failed and has largely lost credibility. It is widely viewed internationally as reflecting U.S. (and, to a lesser degree, British) insistence on maintaining a punitive sanctions-based approach regardless of the humanitarian impact and it is increasingly regarded as having failed to bring about either democratic changes in Iraq or security for the Persian Gulf region. Numerous countries are challenging, if not directly violating, the sanctions regime, and international support has largely eroded.

The U.S. is the driving force behind UN policy, since Washington wields effective veto power over any proposed changes. The U.S. is becoming increasingly isolated in the world body, with only Great Britain remaining in support of the American position. There is little question that a change to a more humane and practical policy by the U.S. would quickly be accepted by the UN Security Council as a whole.

U.S. policy toward Iraq has also failed to take into account the consequences of widespread opposition in the Middle East—across the region at the street level and increasingly at the governmental level as well.

The administration of President George W. Bush has tacitly acknowledged this failure through Secretary of State Colin Powell’s advocacy of “smart sanctions.” The Bush position is often portrayed as a major shift toward a more targeted and humane means of enforcing a sanctions regime against the Iraqi government. However, since the new formula is based upon ongoing UN Security Council supervision over Iraq’s oil exports and revenues and includes vigorous inspections of any and all international commerce, it appears designed more to halt the growing violations of the sanctions regime than to ease the suffering of the Iraqi people. The Iraqi government has rejected the proposal and there appears to be little support from foreign governments.

In the U.S., neither the current policy nor the proposed modifications have much support, but there has been strong opposition to ending the sanctions, based on charges that doing so would be considered “soft on Saddam Hussein.” The result has become a largely politically driven inertia, with the cost-benefit assessment limited to whether changing the policy carries a higher or lower domestic political price than maintaining the current failed policy.

Also of concern are U.S. policies that fall outside the UN framework, such as the campaign of air strikes and the enforcement of “no-fly zones,” which both violate international law and harm the populations they are supposedly trying to protect, as well as Washington’s renewed effort to support an armed Iraqi opposition to the regime of Saddam Hussein.

The following provides a framework and a set of proposed policy options around six key areas deemed central to U.S. policy toward Iraq: arms control, economic sanctions, human rights, no-fly zones, the Iraqi opposition, and depleted uranium.

Arms Control

Framework:

The United Nations Special Commission on Iraq (UNSCOM) was formed to oversee the dismantling of Iraq’s potential for the development of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and their delivery systems. UNSCOM withdrew in December 1998 on the eve of Operation Desert Fox, an intense four-day bombing campaign by the U.S. and Great Britain, and Iraq has not permitted UNSCOM’s return. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has continued its inspection of Iraqi nuclear-related facilities, as it has with other signatories of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

The Iraqi regime amassed significant conventional military capacity and made serious efforts toward WMD capability before August 1990. The heavy bombing during the Gulf War in 1991 and the December 1998 attacks destroyed much of Iraq’s conventional capacity, and UNSCOM and the IAEA have thoroughly disempowered Iraq’s WMD capacity. On the conventional side, the military remains a power within Iraq but is strategically weakened relative to surrounding countries. On the WMD side, the last UNSCOM assessments in 1998 concluded that Iraq was free of nuclear weapons and missiles, almost free of chemical weapons, and questionable regarding biological weapons. Most weapons experts agree that the Iraqi regime probably desires to rebuild its WMD capacity, if that were possible (in part, because of Israel’s nuclear arsenal), but that it does not have access to the materials to do so. Most strategic analysts acknowledge that Iraq today is neither a threat either to the U.S. nor to Iraq’s neighbors. Reflecting that reality, the current disarmament goal should be to prevent future rebuilding of the WMD programs rather than attempting to finalize UNSCOM’s accounting of Iraq’s entire arsenal. In short, the focus should be upon qualitative rather than quantitative WMD disarmament.

Existing U.S. policy, which plays a key role in the development of UN policy, has undermined actual disarmament progress by maintaining an all-stick/no-carrot approach to the economic sanctions and by ignoring the regional and supplier components of arms control. By contrast, a partial lifting of sanctions in return for partial compliance would have allowed an incentive for greater Iraqi cooperation and would have avoided the current stalemate, which has resulted in a sanctions regimes that disproportionately impacts the civilian population and yet fails to win Iraqi compliance with demands for international inspections outside the NPT.

Article 14 of UN Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 687 (the sanctions resolution) identifies the goal of “establishing in the Middle East a zone free of weapons of mass destruction and all missiles to deliver them, and the objective of a global ban on chemical weapons.” But this UN goal, which the U.S. formally endorsed, remains an unfulfilled ideal in the context of regional Middle East security. As of 2000, 20% of the $80 billion international arms trade is imported by the six pro-Western monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Rather than working toward regional arms control, the U.S. remains the largest supplier of arms of all kinds to this already arms-glutted region.

ALTERNATIVE U.S. POLICY PROPOSALS:
* The U.S. should continue a unilateral ban on arms transfers to Iraq.

* The IAEA and the UN (through the Conference on Disarmament and through Security Council-appointed inspectors and those drawn from the chemical weapons treaty organizations) should conduct regular inspections inside Iraq, along Iraq’s borders, and—with the voluntary consent of the relevant governments—inside its immediate neighbors (Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria). The inspections would be designed to identify and halt any efforts by Iraq or its neighbors to build new WMDs or to import material to do so. This would involve the establishment of an inspection agency modeled after the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) and empowered, by agreement from all governments in the region, with the right to make spot-checks, especially at border crossings.

* The U.S. should encourage the establishment of a regional security regime for all eight littoral states of the Persian Gulf (the six GCC states plus Iran and Iraq) that could include such confidence building measures as: a regional early warning network, arms control, a regional cooperation framework comparable to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, other conflict-prevention protocols, and a regional open skies policy.

* The U.S. should, as prescribed by Article 14 of UNSC Resolution 687, initiate negotiations among the major arms supplying nations to stop all advanced arms transfers to Iraq’s neighbors—including Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait—and should set an example by immediately announcing a moratorium on such arms transfers.

* The U.S. should initiate, or support others initiating, Article 14 negotiations involving all Middle East countries regarding the creation of a Middle East WMD-free zone covering all WMDs, including Israel’s uninspected nuclear arsenal. Arms control, including the elimination of WMD programs, should also become a priority in the U.S.-led peace process between Israel and its neighbors.

Economic Sanctions

FRAMEWORK:
Economic sanctions imposed under UNSC Resolution 687 were ostensibly designed to pressure Iraq to cooperate with UNSCOM in finding and eliminating Iraq’s WMD programs. Although UNSCOM and the IAEA were in fact able to find and eliminate the vast majority of Iraq’s WMD programs, the sanctions have failed to insure the Iraqi government’s complete cooperation, and, ten years later, there is no indication that economic sanctions are even slightly effective in advancing disarmament goals. Meanwhile, innocent Iraqi civilians are suffering as a result.

The economic sanctions imposed on Iraq over the last decade are the most comprehensive and tightly enforced of any sanctions regime in recent history. The U.S. position of linking the sanctions to the end of Saddam Hussein’s regime has significantly undermined the legitimacy of the UN’s more limited goal of imposing sanctions until the UN could verify that Iraq had ended its WMD production. Combined with the devastation caused by the 1991 bombing during Operation Desert Storm, the sanctions regime has left the Iraqi leadership weakened in military capacity and in international credibility (though in the Middle East, the latter is rapidly being reversed). Domestically, however, sanctions have served to significantly strengthen the regime. This has occurred because sanctions have: restricted the outside influences, access, and contacts of ordinary Iraqis; made the population dependent on the government for the supply of the minimal food and medicine available; and destroyed Iraq’s middle class, traditionally the social group in the forefront of efforts to promote regime changes in the Arab world.

The sanctions regime itself—most notably the lack of access to the massive funds required for infrastructure repair and replacement—is responsible for the deaths of thousands of the most vulnerable Iraqis, particularly children. Funds generated through gray and black markets in smuggled oil—estimated at up to a half billion dollars each year in the hands of the Iraqi government—are not always made available to the civilian population and, even under the best of circumstances, would be insufficient to meet a significant fraction of the domestic needs of Iraq’s 23 million people. Official U.S. statements blaming the Iraqi regime for the humanitarian crisis in the country are exaggerated, not because the top leadership of the regime makes the well-being of its citizens its top priority, but because the regime does not have the financial ability to significantly improve their lot. (It should be noted, as well, that while staying in power remains the top goal, sustaining a level of physical well-being for the population as a whole has been part of Ba’ath Party’s political survival strategy since it came to power.) Although it is true that the regime has callously diverted much of its own funds away from civilian use and toward political and military investment, this cannot justify the continuation of an international sanctions regime that is directly responsible for much of the human suffering. A full 25% of Iraq’s legal oil revenues that go into the UN’s escrow account are diverted by the UN Compensation Commission. This Commission adjucates claims made by Kuwait and other parties for damages suffered during Iraq’s invasion and occupation. Although the principle of compensation is a sound one, sending money to a wealthy country like Kuwait should be secondary to preventing the deaths of innocent children in Iraq.

What is needed to rebuild Iraq’s devastated social fabric is a massive infusion of cash for the multibillion-dollar reconstruction effort. A sanctions regime that attempts to control a country’s economy from the outside simply will not provide such funds; the artificial economy created from such outside control cannot survive. Ironically, the U.S.-backed economic sanctions have created in Iraq one of the tightest centralized economic systems of any country in the world.

The black market in Iraq, a virtual inevitability under any tight sanctions regime, has further distorted the Iraqi economy. Pre-sanctions Iraq had one of the narrowest wealth-poverty gaps in the region, but the small sector of black marketeers who have profited enormously from the sanctions regime now fuel new and continuing social tensions. Among the Iraqi population, responsibility for economic and social deprivation is largely blamed on the sanctions; when the sanctions are lifted, extraordinary pressure is likely to be directed at the Ba’athist leadership, in contrast to the current level of passive acquiescence to the regime. In short, an end to the sanctions regime would likely weaken, not strengthen, Saddam Hussein’s rule.

The sanctions are imposed in the name of the UN, but in fact have little international support. Numerous countries, including important U.S. allies, are challenging, if not directly violating, the sanctions, and international legitimacy has long since eroded. There is little question that once Washington seeks an end to the economic sanctions, the rest of the UN member states will join in supporting that new stance.

The sanctions currently have and will continue to have a residual effect on U.S. companies, particularly oil companies, competing with European and Asian companies for access to the post-sanctions Iraqi market. The new Bush administration is contending with two competing factions within the administration regarding Iraqi policy: those who oppose sanctions on free trade grounds and those who still demonize the Iraqi regime.

The current sanctions resolution, UNSC 1284, passed reluctantly by the Security Council in December 1999, continues the problems of earlier sanctions resolutions in that it fails to delineate steps toward gradual compliance and does not acknowledge examples of partial compliance but rather includes only open-ended demands that cannot clearly be satisfied. It also does not provide for the actual lifting of economic sanctions—only their temporary suspension. Under this scenario, the default position of reimposed sanctions remains, absent continuing affirmative decisions by the Security Council, thus preventing Iraq access to the large-scale (oil company) investments required to rebuild its infrastructure. UNSC 1284’s failure should be recognized and new discussions opened for a post-sanctions UN policy toward Iraq.

ALTERNATIVE U.S. POLICY PROPOSALS:
* There should be a delinking of military sanctions from economic sanctions.

* There should be an immediate end to the diversion of the 25% of oil-for-food funds that currently goes to the Compensation Commission, until such time as UNICEF and other international agencies can certify that Iraq’s humanitarian crisis is over.

* There should be an immediate end to the UN’s control of contracts on imports. The UN committee responsible for overseeing military sanctions should be notified of contracts when those contracts are being sent for fulfillment. If the U.S. or any other Security Council member has concerns regarding the possibility of dual use for a particular item, the item should remain in the contract and fulfillment should be implemented, but a mechanism should be created to notify UN monitors in Iraq to impose a higher level of tracking to insure appropriate end-use of the item.

* There should be a lifting of economic sanctions. This must include the removal of obstacles to the economic rehabilitation of Iraq, including abolishing the UNSC 661 Sanctions Committee. This body reviews all oil-for-food contracts and is currently holding up over $2 billion in humanitarian supplies. Furthermore, the UN escrow account should be closed simultaneously with Baghdad’s acceptance of the regional disarmament and inspection regime described above. Although there are some widespread and legitimate concerns that the Iraqi regime might use some of these funds to rearm and to enhance its repressive apparatus, strict monitoring and pressures on potential suppliers should keep such potential abuses to a minimum.
Human Rights

FRAMEWORK:
Serious violations of political and civil rights have been a feature of the Iraqi regime since it came to power over twenty years ago. Unfortunately, U.S. government initiatives to challenge past or present Iraqi human rights violations have little credibility, because: 1) the U.S. continued to provide military, diplomatic, and economic support to Iraq throughout the periods of the worst Iraqi violations (including the Anfal campaign in the late 1980s) without seriously challenging the Iraqi regime’s repression; 2) the U.S., through its enforcement of UN sanctions and its continued bombing, is itself responsible for ongoing human rights violations against the Iraqi people, which have caused far more civilian deaths than the total directly attributable to the Iraqi regime; and, 3) the current U.S. policy of singling out Iraq for its human rights violations while supporting other repressive regimes in the region casts doubt on the sincerity of Washington’s stated concern for universally recognized human rights.

The goal of any human rights campaign should be a focus on accountability based on international law and enforced by appropriate international institutions. The U.S. record on human rights toward Iraq and toward the Middle East in general has damaged U.S. credibility to the point where U.S. leadership would likely prove counterproductive. Similarly, though there are indeed aspects of Iraq’s human rights records that are qualitatively worse than even those of its autocratic neighbors, failure to simultaneously promote human rights throughout the entire region will make any efforts to hold the Iraqi regime accountable for its human rights abuses appear more like a political vendetta than an effort based upon legitimate moral and legal foundations.

ALTERNATIVE U.S. POLICY PROPOSALS:
* The U.S. should support the dispatch of UN human rights monitors to Iraq, as mandated by UNSC Resolution 688 to investigate human rights conditions of Iraqi civilians, including violations by any party of political, civil, economic, social, or cultural rights. Investigation should includepolitical prisoners; torture and executions; prohibitions on free speech, opposition political organizations, etc.; denial of adequate food, clean water, health care, and education; restrictions on travel; and, other denials of basic rights. Such investigations, whether in a tribunal form orotherwise, should be focused on establishing accountability for violations, regardless ofperpetrator, and should be an ongoing monitoring program to protect the Iraqi population.

* The U.S. should support international initiatives (tribunals or other forums) designed to holdindividuals and governments (Iraq, U.S., and others) accountable for violations of all categories of human rights in Iraq or occupied Kuwait. A timeline from the mid-1980s to the present would provide a framework for a tribunal or other accountability process to investigate the most egregious allegations of violations of international law and/or UN resolutions. A major focus would be violations of the laws of war, which would include Iraq’s invasion and occupation of Kuwait, its use of chemical weapons, and its failure to account for missing prisoners-of-war. Other focuses would include violations of civil and political rights, which would include the Iraqi regime’s widespread use of arbitrary arrest, torture, extrajudicial killings, and forced relocation or expulsion from homes, as well as violations of economic and social rights including the impact of economic sanctions.

* The U.S. should initiate internal investigations to determine the accountability of U.S. officials responsible for crafting or implementing policies in Iraq that have violated the human rights of the Iraqi population and should take steps to prevent such policies from being imposed in the future. Such an investigation should analyze violations of the laws of war, which would include attacks against nonmilitary and retreating Iraqi troops by allied forces during the Gulf War and the ongoing bombing of Iraq. There should also be a focus on large-scale violations of economic, social, and cultural rights from the allied bombing andsanctions regime, including the denial of a civilian population’s access to sufficient food, water,medicine, and education, as well as the destruction of educational, medical, and cultural institutions.

* All of the above should be part of a shift in U.S. policy toward making the promotion of human rights a higher priority in America’s relationship with all countries of the Middle East region.

No-Fly Zones

FRAMEWORK:
The U.S., Great Britain, and France unilaterally initiated “no-fly zones” in northern and southern Iraq ostensibly in response to popular concern over the humanitarian crisis generated by the Iraqi government’s severe repression of the Kurdish and Shi’a communities following their March 1991 antigovernment uprisings. The two no-fly zones were originally designed to protect these areas from Iraqi air strikes by banning all Iraqi military flights. These no-fly zones have no precedence in international law and no authorization from the United Nations. France has subsequently quit the enforcement efforts.

Subsequently, the U.S. and Britain escalated their military role to include assaults on antiaircraft batteries that fired at allied aircraft enforcing the zones. This role was escalated still further when antiaircraft batteries were attacked simply for locking on their radar screens on allied aircraft, even without firing. Then, the Clinton administration began attacking radar installations and other military targets within the no-fly zone, even when they were unrelated to alleged Iraqi threats against U.S. aircraft. Now, the new Bush administration has escalated things still further, targeting radar and command-and-control installations well beyond the no-fly zone.

According to 1994 and 1996 State Department reports, the creation and military enforcement of no-fly zones have not successfully protected the Iraqi Kurdish and Shi’a populations. The fact that the U.S. and UK routinely allow the Turkish Air Force to conduct bombing raids against Kurdish targets in the northern no-fly zone indicates that there is not a genuine concern about protecting this vulnerable minority. U.S.-UK air strikes have also failed to accurately pinpoint Iraqi military targets. In 1999 alone, UN officials documented 144 civilians killed in the U.S.-UK bombing raids. Enforcement of the no-fly zones is increasingly viewed by many in the U.S. Air Force as both strategically useless and too costly in terms of personnel and funding.

U.S. military enforcement of no-fly zones is not authorized by the UN and is therefore a violation of international law. Internationally, many governments, particularly in Europe and in the Arab world, are strongly opposed. Most of Washington’s Middle Eastern allies are reluctant supporters and face growing domestic pressure to end support for the U.S.-UK flights. Particularly troubling for some gulf states with restive Shi’a populations of their own, is the fear that the no-fly zone for the Shi’a areas of southern Iraq could lead to the breakup of the country along sectarian lines.

ALTERNATIVE U.S. POLICY PROPOSALS:
* The U.S. must stop the bombings and end military enforcement of the no-fly zones.

* The U.S. should call on Turkey to respect its own borders and to keep its air force and ground troops out of Iraqi territory.

* The U.S. should encourage other third parties (such as the European Union, Jordan, Qatar, and France) to work through the UN to initiate discussions with the Iraqi government regarding protection of the Iraqi Kurdish population and other threatened communities within the no-fly zones in Iraq. Since the EU is already involved in discussions regarding Turkey’s treatment of its Kurdish minority, broadening those talks in such a way as to include protecting the rights of Iraqi as well as Turkish Kurds might be a useful beginning.

Iraqi Opposition

FRAMEWORK:
A centerpiece of U.S. policy, particularly since the new Bush administration has come to office, has been Washington’s efforts to bolster political and military opponents of Saddam Hussein, both within Iraq and in exile. The 1998 Iraq Liberation Act, which called for direct U.S. support for Iraqi opposition groups, was largely designed to placate claims that the Clinton administration was “soft” on Iraq.

The Kurds in Iraq, like those in surrounding states, have long faced discrimination and sometimes savage repression, especially after nationalist uprisings. Despite this, Kurdish groups have over the years been in negotiations with Baghdad over access to various rights and privileges. The U.S. in recent decades has a record of seducing, then abandoning, Kurdish leaders and their movements and thus is poorly positioned to claim the moral high ground of “protecting” the Iraqi Kurds. Today the Iraqi Kurdish leadership from both major parties is actively cooperating with the Iraqi regime regarding the income from oil sold through Turkey and other matters of mutual interest.

There has also been serious opposition to Saddam Hussein’s regime within the country’s Arab majority. However, the Iraqi regime has largely succeeded in squelching most serious internal opposition, and the only opposition organization with a functional base of support inside the country, the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution, is closely tied to Iran. The exiled opposition figures are seriously divided. Most have little or no credibility inside Iraq, and a large component represent a range of unsavory characters from corrupt bankers to supporters of the ousted monarchy. The Iraqi National Congress, based in London, is a coalition of exile groups without a clear political agenda and is united largely in the search for access to U.S. aid money.

One of the new Bush administration’s first actions was a reenergized embrace of military support for the Iraqi “contras,” with some officials going so far as to compare them to the “victorious” Nicaraguan contras. Such a policy is fraught with dangers. First, any democratic forces inside the country risk losing their credibility if they accept U.S. government money. Second, such a strategy signals a U.S. commitment to an illegal policy of overthrowing a foreign government. Top Bush administration officials, including Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, and Paul Wolfowitz, have been supporters of the Iraq Liberation Act. Such a policy antagonizes U.S. allies and is a clear violation of international and U.S. law, as well as a number of treaty obligations. Third, despite the greatly reduced power of Saddam Hussein’s military as a result of the war, the sanctions, and the inspection regime, the Iraqi government still has an armed force quite capable of crushing virtually any internal rebellion. Encouraging armed resistance would simple lead to more killings and destruction without loosening the regime’s grip on power. Indeed, some top Pentagon officials, including former U.S. Central Command head General Anthony Zinni, argue that the opposition is simply incapable of seriously weakening, let alone overthrowing, the Iraqi regime.

ALTERNATIVE U.S. POLICY PROPOSALS:
* There should be no U.S. support for armed Iraqi opposition groups. Since the 1998 Iraq Liberation Act does not include specific requirements for implementing its provisions, the White House can and should reverse its current position of support for the act and announce its intention to disregard it.

* The U.S. should reassert its commitments to abide by the UN Charter and other international legal prohibitions against efforts to overthrow other countries’ governments.

* U.S. funds should be provided only to Arab League, European Union, UN, or other multilateral efforts to provide economic and humanitarian aid to civil society organizations and humanitarian institutions inside Iraq; Washington should provide no funds to unilaterally selected recipients or campaigns, including propaganda or political campaigns.

* The best way to protect Kurdish interests would be through a reconciliation process aimed at establishing a nondiscriminating regional autonomy agreement with the Iraqi Kurds and guaranteeing that, with the lifting of sanctions, the region’s economic well-being is protected. The fact that the leaders of both Kurdish parties are currently engaged in ongoing dialog and negotiations with the Baghdad regime makes such an effort viable.

Depleted Uranium and Other Health and Environmental Concerns

FRAMEWORK:
The uncertainty regarding the dangers of depleted uranium (DU) for U.S. veterans of the Gulf War and their children, and most recently for European peacekeeping troops exposed to DU weapons in the Balkans, has made it one of the top domestic consequences of the Gulf War. There is considerable anecdotal evidence that DU is also responsible for dramatic growth rates incertain cancers and other health problems among the civilian population in southern Iraq near the area where allied forces used DU weapons. Recently revealed Pentagon concerns from 1991-92 about the deleterious health threats and the likelihood of plutonium contamination from DU ammunition, warrants a serious, epidemiologically sound study to definitively determine whether DU has a causal link to leukemia, other cancers, or other aspects of Gulf War Syndrome.

The fears regarding DU have been magnified by the Pentagon’s refusal to initiate such a comprehensive study, its resistance to providing background information to NATO-member governments concerned about post-Balkans indications of a link, and its overall lack of concern regarding the health of the U.S. veterans who fought in the Gulf War. In such an atmosphere, it has become virtually impossible to dispassionately examine the separate roles of DU, the fumes from oil fires that spread across Kuwait, the chemical weapons components that may have been released when U.S. troops destroyed Iraqi storehouses, and the vaccine cocktail administered to GIs, let alone the effect of their interactions.

ALTERNATIVE U.S. POLICY PROPOSALS:
* The U.S should support efforts by the UN and other appropriate international agencies to investigate long-term effects of weapons of mass destruction and other toxic weapons including depleted uranium, deployed in the Iraq theatre of conflict since 1980.

* The Pentagon should immediately provide completely open acess to its research and development findings regarding DU for scientists, veterans’ organizations, journalists, and other interested parties in the United States, Europe, the Middle East or elsewhere.

* The U.S. should support international efforts to remove sources of ongoing contamination that may be continuing to harm civilian populations throughout Iraq and in neighboring countries.

* The Pentagon should undertake a large-scale epidemiological survey of all the U.S. GIs who served in the gulf region.

* The U.S. should support a moratorium on the production and use of chemical, biological, and radiological weapons, and should support additional studies on the long-term effects of these weapons, including DU.

http://www.fpif.org/articles/the_failure_of_us_policy_toward_iraq_and_proposed_alternatives

Iraq: 10 Years After Gulf War

Key Points

* The U.S. effectively coddled Hussein’s dictatorial regime during the 1980s with economic and military aid, likely emboldening the invasion of Kuwait.

* The 1991 Gulf War forced the withdrawal of Iraqi troops from Kuwait and led to an ongoing U.S. military presence in the region.

* Certain provisions of the cease-fire agreement, severe economic sanctions and ongoing military operations, have limited Iraqi sovereignty and have created a severe humanitarian crisis.

Ten years after the Gulf War, U.S. policy toward Iraq continues to suffer from an overreliance on military solutions, an abuse of the United Nations and international law, and a disregard for the human suffering resulting from sanctions. Furthermore, Washington’s actions have failed to dislodge Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein from power.

The U.S. quietly supported Saddam Hussein during the 1980s through direct economic aid, indirect military aid, and the transfer of technologies with military applications. Washington rejected calls for sanctions when Iraq invaded Iran in 1980 and when it used chemical weapons against Iranian soldiers and Kurdish civilians. The U.S. Navy intervened in the Persian Gulf against Iran in 1987, further bolstering the Iraqi war effort. The Reagan and Bush administrations dismissed concerns about human rights abuses by Saddam’s totalitarian regime. Such special treatment likely led the Iraqi dictator to believe that appeasement would continue.

Saddam Hussein’s government had brought an impressive degree of prosperity to the Iraqi people, ranking them near the top of third world countries in terms of nutrition, education, health care, housing, and other basic needs. Yet he ruled with a brutality and a cult of personality that ranked his regime among the most totalitarian in the world.

Following a dispute with the government of Kuwait regarding debt repayment and oil policy during the summer of 1990, Iraq invaded the sheikdom in early August, soon annexing the country as its nineteenth province. The UN Security Council condemned the takeover and demanded Iraq’s immediate withdrawal. Iraqi failure to comply led to comprehensive military and economic sanctions. Arab mediation efforts were short-circuited when the U.S. announced it was sending troops to Saudi Arabia to protect the kingdom via Operation Desert Shield, supported by forces from a couple of dozen other UN members. It soon became apparent that the U.S. was preparing for an offensive military action to dislodge Iraqi occupation forces, rejecting any negotiated settlement.

The Bush administration eventually won approval by the U.S. Congress and the UN Security Council to authorize the use of force; in the latter case, extraordinary pressure, including bribes and threats against other members were necessary to eke out a majority. The United States, with support from some allied governments, commenced a heavy bombing campaign in January 1991, inflicting severe damage on not only Iraqi military forces but much of the country’s civilian infrastructure as well. The war, known as Operation Desert Storm, ended six weeks later, after a ground offensive in March liberated Kuwait from Iraqi control with minimal allied casualties but over 100,000 Iraqi deaths.

The cease-fire agreement imposed on Iraq by the U.S. in the name of the UN Security Council included unprecedented infringements on Iraq’s sovereignty, particularly regarding the dismantling of weapons of mass destruction and related facilities, enforced through rigorous inspections by international monitors under the UN Special Commission on Iraq (UNSCOM). In addition, severe repression by Saddam’s regime against rebellious Shiites in the south and Kurds in the north provided a pretext for the United States and its allies to create so-called “no-fly zones,” restricting Iraq’s military movements within its own borders.

Alleging that Iraq has not fully complied with provisions of the cease-fire agreement, particularly regarding cooperation with UNSCOM inspectors, the U.S. has successfully prevented the UN from lifting its sanctions more than ten years after they were first imposed. The result has been a humanitarian catastrophe, with hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians—primarily children—dying from malnutrition and preventable diseases resulting from the inability of Iraqis to get adequate food and medicine or the materials necessary to rebuild the war-damaged civilian infrastructure.

In April 1993 and September 1996, the U.S. engaged in a series of sustained air strikes against Iraq as punitive measures against alleged Iraqi transgressions. UNSCOM inspections were restricted by Iraq in December 1998, in part due to the use of the inspectors for espionage purposes by the U.S., prompting their withdrawal and a heavy four-day U.S. bombing campaign. Since early 1999, the U.S.—with the support of Great Britain—has engaged in unauthorized air strikes on an almost weekly basis.

The U.S. maintains a large-scale military presence in the region to this day. American aircraft patrol Iraqi air space, and the U.S. Navy regularly inspects shipping to enforce both the sanctions and the restrictions on Iraqi military movements. U.S. policy has been defended as an effort to effectively restrict any potential Iraqi aggression against its neighbors, and as a means of creating internal political discontent. Critics charge that there are serious legal and ethical questions regarding U.S. policy and that it is actually strengthening the Iraqi dictator’s hold on power.

Problems with Current U.S. Policy

Key Problems

* U.S.-led sanctions have resulted in massive human suffering among the civilian population.

* The U.S. bombing campaign and the enforcement of no-fly zones are implemented without authorization from the United Nations.

* U.S. policy does not contribute to the security of the region nor weaken Hussein’s grip on power.

Iraq still has not recovered from the 1991 war, during which it was on the receiving end of the heaviest bombing in world history. The U.S. has insisted on maintaining strict sanctions against Iraq to force compliance with demands to dismantle any capability of producing weapons of mass destruction and to address other outstanding issues from the cease-fire agreement. It is largely U.S. opposition that has prevented the UN from lifting the sanctions.

The sanctions have brought great hardships on the Iraqi people, as food prices are now 12,000 times what they were in 1990. It is Iraq’s poor, particularly the children, who have suffered the most. Estimates of the total number of Iraqi deaths from malnutrition and preventable diseases as a result of the sanctions have ranged from a quarter million to over one million, the majority being children. UNICEF estimates that at least 4,500 Iraqi children are dying every month as a result of the sanctions. Indeed, perhaps there has been no other occasion during peacetime when so many people have been condemned to starvation and death from preventable diseases due to political decisions made overseas. The unseen impact of these sanctions on the social fabric of Iraq is perhaps even more severe.

The U.S. claims that such sanctions will lead to the downfall of Saddam Hussein’s regime. However, Washington’s policy against Iraq has had the ironic effect of strengthening Saddam’s rule. Since the Iraqi people are now more dependent than ever on the government for their survival, they are even less likely to risk open defiance. U.S. policies simply have not harmed Iraq’s ruling elites or weakened its repressive internal apparatus. Unlike the reaction to sanctions imposed prior to the war, Iraqi popular resentment lays the blame for the protracted suffering squarely on the United States, not on the totalitarian regime, whose ill-fated conquest of Kuwait prompted the events that led to the economic collapse of this once-prosperous country. In addition, Iraq’s middle class, which would have most likely formed the political force capable of overthrowing Saddam’s regime, has been reduced to penury; many have emigrated. It is not surprising that virtually all of Iraq’s opposition movements oppose the U.S. policy of ongoing punitive sanctions and refuse to endorse the air strikes. Even after Saddam leaves, U.S. policies are creating a whole generation of Iraqis who will be stridently anti-American. Meanwhile, more and more countries are violating aspects of the sanctions regime, further undermining U.S. credibility.

U.S. officials have stated that sanctions would remain even if Iraq complied with United Nations inspectors, indicating a lack of genuine U.S. support for UN resolutions and giving the Iraqi regime virtually no incentive to comply. Moreover, the failure of both the United States and the United Nations to explicitly spell out what was needed in order for sanctions to be lifted contributed to Iraq’s decision to suspend its cooperation with UN inspectors in December 1998.

Although Iraq’s nuclear and chemical weapons capability has been successfully dismantled, there are still concerns about Iraq’s biological weapons potential, though the U.S. has failed to make a credible case as to how Iraq could successfully deliver such weapons or what might motivate the regime to use them. And there is little evidence to suggest that U.S. air strikes have eliminated or reduced the country’s biological weapons capability, which would be based upon small-scale operations that are difficult to find and eliminate through such military action.

The use of U.S. air strikes against Iraq subsequent to the weapons inspectors’ departure has garnered very little support from the international community, including Iraq’s neighbors, who would presumably be most threatened by an Iraqi biological weapons capability. The U.S. has been unable to make a credible case to clarify whom its policies are defending. The United States itself is certainly safe from Iraqi attacks, and most of Iraq’s neighbors have strong armed forces of their own that are more than adequate to deter Iraq’s severely crippled military.

In light of Washington’s tolerance—and even quiet support—of Iraq’s powerful military machine in the 1980s, the exaggerated claims in recent years of an imminent Iraqi military threat, after Iraq’s military infrastructure was largely destroyed in the Gulf War, simply lack credibility. Indeed, the U.S. provided the seed stock for the very biological weapons that Washington claims the Iraqis may be developing. Though experts disagree about Iraq’s ongoing potential for aggression, few actually believe current U.S. policy is making the region safer.

Only the UN Security Council has the prerogative to authorize military responses to violations of its resolutions; no single member state can do so unilaterally without explicit authorization. Were that the case, for example, Russia could bomb Israel for that government’s ongoing violations of UN Security Council resolutions. The U.S. bombing campaigns, therefore, are illegal. In addition, the no-fly zones and other restrictions against Iraq’s military activity within its borders were unilaterally imposed by the United States and Great Britain and are not based on any credible legal covenant.

U.S. policy toward Iraq seems to be a kind of foreign policy by catharsis, where air strikes and other punitive actions are imposed as “feel good” measures against an obstinate dictator. This may at times be politically popular, but it has little strategic value. Saddam Hussein and his inner circle remain safe in their bunkers as the bombs fall; civilians and unwilling conscripts continue to be the primary casualties.

Finally, U.S. double standards have greatly harmed American credibility in the region. Most Arabs and many other people around the world question why Washington insists that it is considered acceptable for Israel to have weapons of mass destruction and for the U.S. to bring weapons of mass destruction into the Middle East. This is particularly true since UN Security Council Resolution 687, which the U.S. claims to be enforcing through the sanctions and bombing, calls for “establishing in the Middle East a zone free from weapons of mass destruction and all missiles for their delivery.”

Toward a New Foreign Policy

Key Recommendations

* The U.S. must lift the sanctions against Iraq’s civilian population. As a first step, Washington should offer to lift the sanctions in return for Iraqi cooperation with UN mandates.

* To maintain credibility in curbing Iraqi threats to peace and stability, the U.S. must support arms control and UN Security Council resolutions throughout the region rather than singling out Iraq.

* The U.S. should become more sensitive to the internal dynamics of Iraqi politics and must recognize that democratic opposition movements will more likely emerge if outside intervention is kept at a minimum.

The ongoing U.S. air strikes against Iraq are illegal and counterproductive and must end. Washington should continue to support an arms embargo on Iraq, but the U.S. should join the growing number of countries in the Middle East and around the world calling for a lifting of the economic sanctions that have brought so much suffering to Iraqi civilians.

The first step should be a U.S. promise to lift the economic sanctions once the UN secretary-general recognizes that Baghdad is in effective compliance with Security Council resolutions. Indeed, for sanctions to work, one needs a carrot as well as a stick, something Washington has failed to recognize. The United States, in consultation with other members of the Security Council, needs to clarify the positive responses that Iraq can expect in return for specific improvements in its behavior.

In addition, Washington must pledge to enforce other outstanding UN Security Council resolutions and not simply single out Iraq. As long as the United States allows allied regimes like Turkey, Morocco, and Israel to flaunt UN Security Council resolutions, any sanctimonious calls for strict compliance by the Iraqi government will simply be dismissed as hypocritical and mean-spirited, whatever the merit of the actual complaints. This is particularly important given that recent Iraqi violations have been largely of a technical nature and that the resolution itself is unprecedented in its level of interference in areas traditionally considered the sovereign rights of individual countries. Such violations pale in comparison to those of the aforementioned U.S. allies, whose ongoing military occupations of neighboring countries represent a direct contravention of the UN Charter.

In a similar vein, the United States must support a comprehensive arms control regime for the region, including the establishment of a zone in the Middle East where all weapons of mass destruction are banned. Such an agreement would halt the U.S. practice of bringing nuclear weapons into the region on its planes and ships and would force Israel to dismantle its sizable nuclear arsenal. This more holistic approach to nonproliferation might include, for example, a five-year program affecting not just Iraqi missiles but phasing out Syrian, Israeli, and other missiles as well.

As with its highly selective insistence on the enforcement of UN Security Council resolutions, the double standards in U.S. policy make even the most legitimate concerns about Iraqi weapons development virtually impossible to successfully pursue. If Iraq is truly a threat to regional security, there must be a comprehensive regional security regime worked out between the eight littoral states of the Persian Gulf. The U.S. should support such efforts and not allow its quest for arms sales and oil resources to unnecessarily exacerbate regional tensions.

The United States remains one of the few governments in the world that rejects any linkage between Persian Gulf security issues and Israeli-Palestinian issues. Few people familiar with the region, however, fail to recognize the importance of resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (which would establish a viable Palestinian state with a shared Jerusalem) in order to weaken the appeal and power of demagogues like Saddam Hussein. There is little question of the pivotal role the U.S. plays in the peace process. Washington’s failure to force Israeli compromise is the major reason for the current violence and the impasse in negotiations with the Palestinians.

International guarantees protecting the oppressed Kurds of northern Iraq are also necessary. However, they should not be used as an excuse for ongoing punitive air strikes; the Kurds should not yet again be used as pawns in an international rivalry. Comprehensive initiatives for a just settlement of the Kurdish question—including the oppressed Kurdish minority in Turkey and other countries—should be pursued by the international community.

Finally, there needs to be a greater understanding by U.S. policymakers of Iraqi politics and society, which Washington is not only sorely lacking but appears to have done little to improve upon. The reality is that Saddam Hussein will likely remain in power until the Iraqi people are able to overthrow him themselves. An appreciation for how this might best be done could be greatly improved if the United States would be more open to greater dialogue with Iraq’s exiled opposition. In recent years, however, Washington has tended to dismiss input from the Iraqi opposition when crafting U.S. policy toward Iraq.

Although there is nothing inherently wrong with the United States or other countries supporting democratic opposition movements against autocratic regimes, the U.S. has so thoroughly destroyed its credibility that little good can result from actively supporting an Iraqi opposition movement, particularly given its weakness and internal divisions. In particular, support for any kind of military resistance is not only futile but would give the Iraqi regime an excuse to crack down even harder against the country’s already-pummeled people. There is little question that, with the lifting of economic sanctions and an end to the bombing, some kind of organized opposition will emerge. However, to be successful, it must be seen as a genuinely indigenous force, not the creation of yet another ill-fated intervention by Western powers.

http://www.fpif.org/reports/iraq_10_years_after_gulf_war

The Gulf War: 8 Myths

The United States-led war against Iraq commenced on January 16, 1991. On this the tenth anniversary of the Gulf War, the myths that justified the war continue to be widely circulated. It is important, particularly in the light of the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iraq and the devastating humanitarian impact of U.S.-led sanctions, to challenge these myths. To fail to do so will make it difficult to change U.S. policy and could even increase the possibility of another cataclysmic war in the future.

At the outset, it should be emphasized that Iraq’s invasion and occupation of Kuwait, and Saddam Hussein’s refusal to back down in the face of a strong international consensus against such aggression, was the root cause of the conflict. The question is not whether the United States should have taken a strong stand against the policies of the Iraqi government, but rather what the most effective means was of doing so consistent with the political, economic, environmental, and moral concerns of the United States and the international community.

Myth One: Upholding Principles

The first myth is that the war was about principles: about freedom, about the right of self-determination, about international law, about enforcing United Nations resolutions. It should be clear to anybody that Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait was irresponsible, illegal, and immoral. Iraq’s claim to Kuwait is completely ahistorical. Although the exact location of the border between the countries may have been arbitrary and unfair to Iraq, Kuwait has manifested its own unique tribal and cultural identity for at least two and a half centuries. The repression accompanying the Iraqi invasion was only slightly exaggerated by Western media—it really was quite brutal; the inhumanity shown by the Iraqi occupation forces was extreme. Yet it is important to point out that Iraq was not the only country in the world at that time that was illegally occupying neighboring countries and brutally repressing their populations in violation of United Nations resolutions.

For example, just fifteen years earlier, Morocco invaded Western Sahara—as in the Gulf crisis, a powerful, autocratic Arab country invading a small, resource-rich Arab neighbor. The Moroccans forced most Western Saharans out of their country, into exile in the desert, with horrific human consequences. In Southeast Asia that same year, Indonesia invaded the tiny island nation of East Timor. More than one-third of the population—over 200,000 people—perished in the repression that followed. The United Nations took immediate action, condemning these invasions and calling for an immediate withdrawal of foreign forces, just as they did in the case of Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait. No decisive action was taken by the international community, however, due to U.S. objections. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, then-United States ambassador to the United Nations, reveals in his autobiography that: “The Department of State desired that the United Nations prove utterly ineffective in whatever measures it undertook. The task was given to me, and I carried it forward with no inconsiderable success.” Morocco and Indonesia were major allies of the United States; the U.S. did not deem it appropriate to interfere with their policies.

Similarly, Turkey has continued its illegal occupation of the northern third of Cyprus. More than 2,000 civilians have been killed (including some American citizens), the entire ethnic Greek majority was forcibly expelled in 1974, and the island remains divided. And Israel continues to occupy much of the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, and the Golan Heights, all in violation of United Nations resolutions. During most of the Gulf War, Palestinians in the occupied territories were placed under 24-hour curfew, and were allowed only an hour or so every few days to purchase food and other scarce provisions. Thousands of Palestinians, including moderate intellectuals, were imprisoned without charge. In the three years before Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, Israeli occupation forces killed more than 1,000 Palestinians, including scores of children, hundreds of homes were demolished, orchards and other croplands were uprooted, and scores of activists were forced into exile. All of these actions were illegal under international law.

All four aggressors—Morocco, Indonesia, Turkey, and Israel—at that time were collectively receiving billions of dollars annually in unrestricted military and economic aid from the United States government. The U.S. was arming and subsidizing—and in some cases continues to arm—occupation forces. As a result, most Arabs—even those who opposed Iraq’s aggression against Kuwait—saw the Gulf War not as an act of principle but as an act of imperialism. Washington’s continued economic, military, and diplomatic support of Israel’s ongoing occupation and repression against the Palestinians has only added to the resentment felt in the Arab world toward the United States.

In addition to the double-standard concerning resolutions against illegal occupations, it should be noted that the Security Council is not the only branch of the United Nations. There is also a judicial wing of the UN, the International Court of Justice or the “World Court.” This court ruled in 1986 that the United States had to cease and desist its attacks on Nicaragua—including the mining of harbors and the support of the Contras, and pay compensation for this damage. The United States refused to even recognize the World Court’s ruling, joining Iran and South Africa as the only nations in recent years to be in such open contempt of the International Court of Justice.

The debate immediately prior to the Gulf War, still heard today in other contexts, considered whether the United States should be the world’s policeman. A policeman, however, is supposed to work under a legally constituted authority, obey the law, and enforce the law consistently. One who is a self-proclaimed and selective enforcer of the law, and who often flaunts the law for personal gain, is not a policeman but rather a vigilante.

The view by most in the Middle East is that the United States did not really care about the Kuwaitis but only about what was underneath Kuwait. The perception also persists that the United States does not really care about freedom, since the U.S. insisted on the restoration of the corrupt and despotic Sabah dynasty in Kuwait and did nothing to stop the human rights violations that took place after U.S. forces threw out the Iraqis. Indeed, many Arabs are bemused by the irony that the United States—which was founded in a war for freedom against monarchy—so eagerly went to war in defense of monarchy and continues to support other corrupt and autocratic monarchies in the region.

Myth Two: Hussein as Hitler

The second myth is the frequent accusation that Saddam Hussein was another Hitler, ready to take over the Middle East and the world. Although the nefarious nature of Saddam Hussein cannot be denied, it is wrong to exaggerate his potential for evil or to ignore the history of U.S. support for Saddam Hussein.

For much of the decade prior to Iraq’s takeover of Kuwait, the United States was giving Saddam Hussein both direct economic aid and indirect military aid and encouraging trade, including that of sensitive, military-related technologies. Prominent American political figures courted Saddam Hussein up until months prior to the invasion of Kuwait. The Reagan administration even sent in the United States Navy to protect Iraqi shipping during the Iran-Iraq war. (It was referred to as “Kuwaiti” shipping, but in fact much of the shipping was bound for Iraq in support of its war effort.) Even though the Iraqis had attacked twice as many tankers in the Persian Gulf as had the Iranians—they even attacked a U.S. frigate in 1987, causing the deaths of 38 American sailors—the U.S. was clearly supporting the Iraqi war effort when President Ronald Reagan sent in the American fleet.

There were widespread calls for international sanctions against Saddam Hussein when he invaded Iran in 1980. Yet the United States was actually supportive of his effort, because the Ayatollah Khomeini was seen as the major U.S. enemy at the time. Similarly, when Iraq violated international prohibitions against the use of chemical weapons, killing thousands of Iranian soldiers and Kurdish civilians, widespread calls for immediate international sanctions against Saddam Hussein’s regime fell on deaf ears in Washington. This raises a serious question: If Saddam Hussein was really that much of a threat, why didn’t the U.S. respond earlier?

Like Manuel Noriega, whose government in Panama received massive economic and military aid from the United States and who was personally on the CIA payroll despite Washington’s knowledge of his human rights abuses and his involvement in the drug trade, the U.S. overlooked Saddam’s record as long as he was politically useful. Like Noriega, when his usefulness lapsed, Washington portrayed Hussein as some kind of monster, and the American public was told that the only way to stop him was to use military force.

Following its seizure of Kuwait, Washington was never able to produce any evidence to support its contention that Iraq was preparing an imminent invasion of Saudi Arabia. Though such an action by the Iraqis cannot be ruled out, it appears extremely unlikely: Iraq has never harbored territorial claims against Saudi Arabia, Iraqi troops dug in to fortified defensive positions immediately upon entering Kuwait, and Iraq’s troops did not move into Saudi Arabia, despite the lack of sufficient Western forces to produce a credible deterrent. The St. Petersburg Times got hold of satellite footage of the area from that critical period soon after the Iraqis seized Kuwait, and, contrary to U.S. government statements, there was no evidence of Iraqi troops massing on the border with Saudi Arabia. Indeed, Iraq dramatically increased its number of troops in Kuwait only after allied forces arrived. When the Pentagon was asked by the newspaper to present evidence that would support its contention that Iraq was preparing to invade Saudi Arabia, officials refused.

The Hitler “bogeyman” has been used repeatedly to justify attacks by Western nations against the third world. The British and French insisted that the late Egyptian leader Gamal Abdul-Nasser was “another Hitler.” The United States insisted that without a major war in Vietnam, the communists—like the Nazis—would then try to take over the world. As vice president, George Bush referred to the Sandinista government of Nicaragua as being like the Nazis, contending that government forces were going to invade the rest of Central America if they were not stopped.

Such rhetoric was used again against Iraq to frighten the American people into supporting an unnecessary war. Exemplifying this manipulation just prior to the war, the cover of the New Republic—considered the flagship magazine of the liberal establishment— sported a photograph of Saddam Hussein airbrushed in such a way that his long moustache was significantly shortened to make him look more like Adolf Hitler.

Yet Iraq has never had the industrial capacity, the self-sustaining economy, the domestic arms industry, the population base, the coherent ideology or political mobilization, the powerful allies, or any of the necessary components for large-scale military conquest that the German, Italian, and Japanese fascists of the 1930s and 1940s had. Though better off than most of the non-Western world, Iraq was still a third world country and was quite incapable of seizing or holding large amounts of territory. Hitler’s army could not have been completely destroyed in less than 100 days, as was Saddam Hussein’s.

Historically, armed forces have exaggerated their own strengths and minimized their opponents’ strengths in order to convince their enemies not to engage in acts of aggression. This has been one of the foundations of the theory of deterrence. However, recent decades have witnessed the reversal of this practice. Washington has consistently exaggerated the military forces of its opponents—be they Soviet, Nicaraguan, or Iraqi—and underestimated the ability of the United States and its allies to resist or overcome these “enemies.” From the perspective of deterrence, this is totally foolish: to exaggerate your enemy’s strength, while underestimating your own ability to resist, is to invite attack. But the Pentagon feels it is necessary to promote this perspective in order to convince the American people of the need to divert the nation’s resources to military production or to engage in a war. When, after deliberately exaggerating the strength of an enemy, U.S. forces defeat it soundly, the feat appears as an incredible victory, and the popularity of the U.S. military rises. So it appears that such posturing is for domestic consumption only.

Finally, the demonization of Saddam Hussein has been orchestrated in large part to deflect attention from the enormous destruction of the Iraqi civilian population and infrastructure caused by the war and postwar sanctions. The suffering of 22 million Iraqis is given far less attention by U.S. policymakers or media managers than the actions of one man who has been made into an easy target for popular anger. Since the Gulf War U.S. policies allegedly targeting him are in fact punishing an entire nation.

Myth Three: Iraq as a Nuclear Threat

A third myth is that Saddam Hussein was on the verge of producing nuclear weapons. In the middle of 1990, experts in the United States and in Israel, which had good reason to be concerned about Iraq’s nuclear potential, were saying that Iraq had the potential of producing one Hiroshima-sized nuclear weapon in approximately five to seven years. Then, all of a sudden, the American public was told that the Iraqis would have an offensive nuclear capability within just months. It is noteworthy that this rhetoric surfaced in November of that year, when public opinion polls first indicated that this was the one reason that most Americans felt could justify a military attack against Iraq.

One thing Americans did not hear about, however, was that Saddam Hussein had for some time been calling for a nuclear-free zone in all of the Middle East. This plea was rejected by the United States. Located near both Israel, which had and still maintains a stockpile of at least 200 nuclear weapons, and Pakistan, which was extremely close to full nuclear capability (and has since tested several atomic bombs), the Iraqis saw their nuclear program as largely defensive, a program they offered to end, should they no longer face a potential nuclear threat from hostile neighbors. Unlike Israel and Pakistan, Iraq had signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and had opened its nuclear sites to international inspection teams. Like most other governments, Baghdad found it hypocritical that Washington—which had blocked strengthening international nuclear nonproliferation regimes, had almost single-handedly quashed a worldwide nuclear test ban the previous year, and was continuing to develop its own nuclear arsenal—should find the Iraqi nuclear program so objectionable.

The International Atomic Energy Agency and other United Nations inspectors have since overseen the total dismantling of Iraq’s nuclear apparatus. There are indications that Iraq’s nuclear potential in 1990 was more advanced than earlier conservative estimates, but not nearly as imminent as the United States had insisted. In any case, the procurement of a few small nuclear devices does not mean that these weapons would ever have been used. Indeed, the United States and its allies survived for decades in the face of thousands of Soviet and Chinese nuclear warheads. Any use of such weapons would have been suicidal. To assert that Iraq would suddenly start threatening its neighbors with nuclear weapons was simply a scare tactic. To believe otherwise would be an admission that deterrence—the cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy for decades—is a lie. Even when pummeled by the heaviest attacks any country has faced in world history, Iraq never used its chemical weapons. That Baghdad would unilaterally launch a nuclear attack defies logic.

Even though Baghdad agreed to eliminate Iraq’s chemical weapons arsenal as part of the establishment of a nuclear-free zone in the region, Washington still refused to back the plan. The United States was, in effect, saying, “it’s okay for us to have nuclear and chemical weapons, it’s okay for our allies in the region to have chemical and nuclear weapons, but you cannot have chemical and nuclear weapons.” As horrifying as Iraq’s potential use of chemical and nuclear weapons may have been, Washington’s double-standards played better at home than in the Middle East and elsewhere in the world. Not only did such hypocrisy hurt U.S. credibility, it also raised questions about whether the U.S. had really exhausted all of the nonmilitary means of challenging Saddam Hussein’s military appetite.

Myth Four: Ending Saddam Hussein’s Power

The fourth myth is that the war was fought to get rid of a dictator—Saddam Hussein. More than 100,000 Iraqis died during the war, and hundreds of thousands more have perished from the effects of postwar sanctions, yet Saddam is still in power. President Bush urged the people of Iraq to rise up against their dictator, yet the U.S. did nothing to support the postwar rebellion and stood by while thousands of Iraqi Kurds, Shiites, and others were slaughtered. In the cease-fire agreement at the end of the war, the U.S. made a conscious decision to exclude helicopter gunships from the ban on Iraqi military air traffic, even though these were the very weapons that proved so decisive in crushing the rebellions. Only fifteen years earlier, after goading the Kurds into an armed uprising with the promise of military support, the U.S., as part of an agreement with the Baghdad government for a territorial compromise favorable to Iran, abandoned the Kurds precipitously; thousands were slaughtered. Washington has never opposed Saddam when his repression is exclusively internal or his aggression is directed toward U.S. adversaries.

Saddam Hussein’s regime, then as now, is brutal and totalitarian. Reports by Amnesty International and other reputable organizations documenting Iraq’s widespread human rights violations are well-known. Yet such behavior was not what bothered the United States. Washington has given massive military support to regimes that have been responsible for far more civilian deaths than even Saddam, such as Indonesia under Suharto.

Despite the nature of his rule, however, and despite the fact that he diverted much of Iraq’s resources to military purposes, Saddam Hussein, in his prewar period, did more than most rulers in that part of the world to meet the basic material needs of his people in terms of housing, health care, and education. In fact, Iraq’s impressive infrastructure and strongly nationalistic ideology led many Arabs to conclude that the overkill exhibited by American forces and the postwar sanctions was a deliberate effort to emphasize that any development strategy in that part of the world must be pursued solely on terms favorable to Western interests.

Saddam Hussein was also able to articulate the frustrations of the Arab masses concerning the Palestinian question, sovereignty regarding natural resources, and resistance to foreign domination. He was certainly opportunistic and manipulative in doing so, but it worked. Most Arabs were strongly opposed to Iraq’s takeover of Kuwait. They were keenly aware of the nature of Saddam Hussein’s regime and of its brutality. Yet Kuwait was not the main issue to them; it became much more than that. With the launch of the allied attacks, the primary showdown pitted one of the most articulate spokesmen for Arab nationalism against the West. Since the Crusades, the West has repeatedly invaded and exploited Arab peoples, prompting an enormous amount of resentment. Thus, there was real concern, both in the Middle East and beyond, that the United States was using Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait as an excuse to exert a long-desired military, political, and economic hegemony in the region.

Indeed, the U.S.-led military response to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait turned Saddam Hussein from aggressor to defender and from bully to hero in the eyes of much of the Arab world. This perspective, regretfully, seems to have spread throughout the Middle East and North Africa. There are many people, like the majority of Jordanians and Palestinians, who have never liked Saddam Hussein yet have come to his side. This response is not out of naiveté about Saddam’s character, in most cases, nor is it a defense of his aggression against Kuwait. Rather it is a very deep-seated feeling of a people who have repeatedly been subjected to foreign domination and have found a symbol of resistance in Saddam Hussein. Though tarnished by the decisiveness of Saddam’s defeat, this cult of resistance does not bode well for the development of more responsible leadership in the Middle East.

The fact that so many Arabs supported Saddam is not due to the racist notion that there is something inherent in Islamic culture that predisposes Arabs to support autocrats. In one respect, the United States won the battle but lost the war. The U.S. defeated Saddam Hussein’s army, but America is now faced with tens of millions of Arabs more hostile to the United States than they had been previously, and with whom the United States will have to deal for many years to come.

Myth Five: The Only Option

The fifth myth is the belief that military force was the only way to deal with Saddam Hussein’s invasion. In the days immediately following Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, Arab leaders were very close to convincing Iraq to withdraw. No other member of the Arab League supported the invasion. But the sudden onrush of American forces into the region caused Saddam Hussein to harden his attitude. In return for the Arab-sponsored withdrawal, there may have been some compromises—perhaps regarding the exact location of the border separating Iraq and Kuwait or concerning the restoration of the Sabah family to the throne—but there is little question that Iraq would have been out of all of inhabited Kuwait within weeks of the invasion had the U.S. allowed this dispute to remain an Arab affair.

There were several possibilities for a negotiated settlement between the U.S. and Iraq. One meeting at the foreign ministry level a week before hostilities broke out does not constitute exhausting the possibilities. Unilateral demands are not negotiations. American specialists on the negotiation process felt that the United States wanted a war, given that Washington gave the Iraqis no opportunity to save face. One needs to declare some kind of victory, if only a 2% victory. There were a number of ways the United States could have negotiated an Iraqi withdrawal from Kuwait and met other legitimate security concerns short of declaring war. Minor boundary adjustments or an internationally supervised referendum on the future of the Kuwaiti monarchy could have been proposed and pursued, but were not.

In the middle of the war, in late February, the Iraqis agreed to withdraw from Kuwait prior to the launching of the ground war, accepting the Soviet peace proposal in full. The possibility of a peaceful solution was so feared in Washington that possible Iraqi acceptance of the Soviet plan was referred to as the “nightmare scenario.” The U.S. continued its attack, even as Iraqi forces were withdrawing. Thousands of retreating soldiers and civilian refugees were slaughtered as they fled northward hundreds of miles into Iraq. There was no escape; they were herded and steered, usually not even given a chance to surrender. American pilots referred to it as a “turkey shoot.” The one-sided victory in the ground war was not exclusively the result of U.S. military prowess. Instead, it appears that the Iraqis were evacuating—or had already evacuated—their positions when U.S. ground forces arrived. For example, the Washington Post confirmed that tens of thousands of Iraqi troops had withdrawn a full 36 hours before the first allied forces reached Kuwait City. These troops, too, were pursued by the American attackers.

Another alternative to military force was the UN sanctions, which were working. The CIA estimated that UN sanctions blocked 90% of Iraqi imports and 97% of Iraqi exports; no country can survive very long under those conditions. Such a rate of compliance vastly exceeds that of the postwar sanctions regime. In Iraq prior to the outbreak of the war, there were long gas lines, though the country is normally a major exporter of oil. There were also chronic shortages of basic foodstuffs, such as rice, bread, and sugar, which are staples in the Iraqi diet. Breakdowns, from lavatories to automobiles, were common due to a lack of spare parts. There was hyperinflation, though Iraq had a largely planned economy and had never experienced such havoc. The CIA predicted that Iraq would be forced out of Kuwait by sanctions alone within six months. The sanctions were working materially, but they were not quite working politically.

The reasons were two-fold: first, the U.S. insisted that sanctions would continue even if Iraq withdrew from Kuwait, leaving Baghdad little incentive to comply. Second, the Iraqis were faced with a simultaneous military threat. When a country is faced with an external threat to its security, people tolerate a lot more economic hardship than they would otherwise.

Had sanctions started early, at the time Saddam Hussein invaded Iran or first used chemical weapons, he would not likely have invaded Kuwait. Or had sanctions been applied following his invasion of Kuwait (with removal conditioned upon his military withdrawal and without brandishing a simultaneous military threat), he would likely have withdrawn prior to the outbreak of hostilities. War was not the only option.

Myth Six: Protects U.S. Interests

A sixth myth is that the war was vital to United States interests. For example, concerns over access to oil came up quite a bit in the months leading up to the war. Yet only a small percentage of oil consumed by Americans comes from the Middle East. The Europeans and Japanese are far more dependent on Persian Gulf exports, but they were far less eager to go to war over Kuwait.

Actually, Americans need not be dependent on Middle Eastern oil at all. There are safe, renewable energy alternatives, such as solar, wind, geothermal, tidal, and biomass options; the technology is available. These options may not be as profitable for certain energy conglomerates, but they are readily accessible. The U.S. could choose to go in that direction. What’s lacking is not more research but more political will. Government subsidies may be required to make these alternative sources more cost-effective, but no more than the subsidies Washington currently grants the nuclear energy industry and the oil-based economy. Perhaps it is no accident that the first president to get the U.S. into a major Middle Eastern war was also a former oil company executive. Indeed, had the Reagan administration not eliminated automobile fuel efficiency standards, which should have gone into effect in 1989, new American automobiles would have been averaging a full six to seven miles per gallon more than they did at the time the war broke out: the equivalent of all of the oil then imported from Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia combined.

Meanwhile, government support for public transportation was (and remains) the lowest in the industrialized world, and there has been virtually no support for conservation. Contrast that with Japan, which for years has stressed public transportation, conservation, and decentralized solar technology. Japan’s investment in a high-speed rail system has paid for itself many times over, as have conservation methods in industry. Rather than dumping billions of dollars into dubious synfuels projects, subsidizing oil-based transportation by building more superhighways, or leaving energy matters to profit-motivated market forces, the Japanese have ended up saving these expenses. Japan now uses far less energy per unit of GNP than does the United States. Meanwhile, U.S. taxpayers are spending millions of dollars every day to maintain American troops in order to protect oil supplies that would not be needed if alternative energy sources were utilized. Indeed, in the past thirty years, more than $500 billion has been spent on military forces designed largely to protect Middle Eastern oil fields. If these costs were factored in to what Americans pay for gasoline at the pump, this “real” price might encourage conservation.

Another issue involving vital U.S. interests is the broader question of security. Despite the Gulf War, the postwar sanctions, the ongoing U.S. military presence in the Middle East, and the support of Israel and autocratic Arab regimes, individual Americans and U.S. interests as a whole are more threatened in the Middle East than ever before. This raises the ironic dilemma: in the quest for greater American security in the Middle East, has the United States not made itself more insecure? In America’s eagerness to show its military prowess and to support repressive regimes in the region, the U.S. has made many Arab enemies. All the sophisticated military hardware, brave soldiers, brilliant military strategists, and allied regimes in the world cannot make up for this hostility. It is an enmity that the U.S. has paid for and will continue to pay for in the form of terrorism, missed opportunities for investment by American business, aborted diplomatic initiatives, and lost chances for invaluable cultural and personal exchanges between the United States and the Arab world.

Myth Seven: The Multinational Force

The seventh myth is that the U.S. was part of a multinational force. There was certainly impressive unity in the world community in terms of opposition to Iraq’s aggression against Kuwait. The prewar sanctions were almost universally respected. The world reaction to the war, however, was mixed. Outside of the highly unpopular gulf monarchs, the Syrian dictator Hafez Assad, and the economically strapped and enormously dependent Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, no Arab leader supported the military response to Iraq’s aggression against Kuwait. Washington, never supportive of Arab unity, is probably quite pleased with the divisions it has induced.

The United States received lukewarm support from the UN Security Council essentially through bribery. To keep China from vetoing the UN resolution authorizing the use of force, the U.S. dropped trade sanctions and approved new loans. In return for Soviet support, the U.S. ensured that the repression in the Baltic republics was not discussed at the Paris Peace Conference. Colombia and Zaire, nonpermanent members, were promised increased aid and extensions of loans. When Yemen refused to toe the line, the U.S. yanked $70 million in aid. So it is questionable how deeply and sincerely the international community supported the war effort. Indeed, very few countries outside of Western Europe supported the Gulf War.

The U.S. did have some tangible support from Western allies, particularly in the air war and in some naval activities. However, the ground forces were overwhelmingly American, and Americans represented the vast majority of allied casualties. Perhaps the allies realized something about this crisis Americans did not: although they supported its liberation, Kuwait was not worth spilling their own blood over, particularly when nonmilitary options were possible.

Myth Eight: Ethical Considerations Not Essential

The final myth is that ethical considerations should not play a part in evaluating the war. Americans were told repeatedly, “we did this to Saddam, we did that to Saddam.” Yet Saddam and his henchmen were safe in their bunkers, and Saddam is still in power. It is the people of Iraq who died in great numbers, with most estimates in the range of 100,000 to 175,000. Though the proportion of civilians killed was much less than in other air wars, the bombing was the heaviest in world history—tens of thousands of sorties. Thus, the absolute number of civilian casualties was quite high—between five and ten thousand. It should be noted that even the so-called “smart bombs” had at most a 60% accuracy rate. Americans did not see any footage of the 40% that missed their targets, sometimes by miles. It should also be noted that these laser-guided weapons were a minority of the bombs dropped. Significantly, the vast majority of civilians killed were hundreds of miles from Kuwait and the occupying Iraqi army.

Americans were told that U.S. pilots made a good faith effort to avoid women and children. But does that mean that adult men are expendable? Most of Saddam Hussein’s forces were conscripts; many were even his opponents. In fact, Saddam deliberately placed on the front lines a disproportionate number of Kurds, Assyrian Christians, Shiites, and other groups traditionally opposed to his leadership, hoping that they would bear the brunt of the casualties. The United States military obliged, killing tens of thousands of them, even as they retreated. The result is that more opponents of the Iraqi government were slaughtered in six weeks of U.S. attacks than during the previous twenty years of Saddam Hussein’s repression. There are many documented stories of how desperately Iraqi soldiers tried to surrender; the vast majority were never given the chance.

With so much emphasis on the relatively small number of American casualties, neither the large number of Iraqi fatalities, the immense environmental damage, nor the enormous political and economic consequences of the war have been adequately considered. It is as if Americans believe that since the U.S. was successful, the war was therefore moral and unavoidable. Until Americans are willing to seriously address the ethical issues, they cannot understand the real implications of the Gulf War.

Whatever the crimes of Saddam Hussein’s regime—and there certainly are many—it is still people who die in wars. This is the nature of warfare. And this is why even those religious denominations that have historically backed “just wars” now question whether the criterion of proportionality can ever be met, given the destructive firepower available to armed forces in this modern era. In a world of increasing economic interdependence, with nonmilitary options more available, it is also questionable whether the criterion of war as a last result can be met either.

The United Nations mandate to use force only referred to the liberation of Kuwait. Yet the United States bombed virtually all of Iraq, including targets unrelated to the occupation. The U.S. did not just attack military facilities but zapped the country’s entire infrastructure: roads, bridges, factories, power stations, and government offices. For decades, long before Saddam Hussein came to power, the Iraqis had painstakingly progressed from their backwater Ottoman legacy to become one of the most impressive and developed states in the third world. Decades of construction efforts, much of it supported by international development agencies, was systematically destroyed.

Once again, it is the people who are suffering: millions of Iraqis, for the first time in decades, find themselves without clean water, electricity, or any reliable means for transporting food and medicines. A United Nations report notes that the bombing sent Iraq back to “a pre-industrial age.” Throughout the third world, the United States is now seen as a country willing to slash its financial support for development programs, but willing to spend billions of dollars to destroy one of the few third world societies that had brought itself up from abject poverty. Though the U.S. has insisted that Iraq pay Kuwait—one of the wealthiest countries in the world—for war damage, the U.S. has refused to pay for any of the far greater damage that its armed forces inflicted on nonmilitary targets in Iraq. The widespread physical destruction, difficult to repair without basic imports banned by the sanctions, has triggered a public health crisis resulting in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians—mostly children—in the years since the war. The ethical consequences of the war continue to this day.

Myths Guide Current Iraq Policy

In many respects, the Gulf War seemed to be at least as much about asserting U.S. military power in the waning months of the cold war as about liberating a captive nation. Indeed, the above myths do not just continue to impact upon Washington’s misguided policies toward Iraq but have warped the overall thrust of U.S. foreign and military policy for the past decade. It will be difficult to challenge dysfunctional U.S. foreign policies—excessive military spending, unilateralism, punishing civilians for the crimes of their unelected governments, rejection of diplomacy, and more—until the myths themselves are successfully challenged. History can teach us a lesson only if it reflects what really happened, not simply on what those in power want people to believe happened.

http://www.fpif.org/articles/the_gulf_war_8_myths